South Asia Economic Focus - Executive Summary - Chapter 1 - Stronger headwinds during recovery

Jul 19, 2026

Executive Summary outlines how uneven post-pandemic recovery in South Asia is compounded by the war in Ukraine, intensifying inflation pressures, financing difficulties, and fiscal and trade deficits. The report analyzes economic impacts across sectors and groups, including risks to employment for migrant workers and gender gaps in job recovery. It emphasizes the need to reshape tax systems, boost competition, and revisit norms alongside growth measures, with careful monetary and fiscal policy guidance.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages6

Reading Time15 min

Executive Summary

Stronger headwinds during recovery

Charting the course to a new normal

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Executive Summary The uneven recovery from the pandemic has left countries in South Asia with multiple policy challenges, which are exacerbated by the impact of the war in Ukraine. While several countries are navigating rising inflation and growing difficulties to finance fiscal deficits and trade deficits, the region must also chart a new way forward to address rising inequality, unleash new growth potential, and accommodate an energy transition. To reshape their economies, the region cannot avoid redesigning tax systems, increasing competition, and challenging vested interests and existing gender norms. This issue of the South Asia Economic Focus describes recent economic developments, analyzes the economic impact on South Asia of the war in Ukraine, presents growth forecasts, provides risk scenarios, and concludes that reshaping economies goes hand in hand with reshaping norms. Chapter 1. Stronger headwinds during recovery Although the region’s economy is growing again, the recoveries have been uneven across sectors, countries, and groups of people. While production and exports of digital services have risen, other sectors like construction, transportation, and tourism have not fully recovered in most countries. While some countries experience a solid rebound in GDP growth, Afghanistan faces a humanitarian crisis, Pakistan a political crisis, and Sri Lanka a balance-of-payments crisis. While high-skilled workers retained jobs during the pandemic, or found new opportunities, only some unskilled migrant workers have returned to jobs in the cities. Moreover, men have been able to find new job opportunities more quickly than women. South Asian economies are emerging from the deep COVID-19 recession, burdened by high inflation, rising current account deficits, and deteriorated fiscal balances, which are exacerbated by the impact of war in Ukraine. Even as the impact of the pandemic on growth is subsiding, partly because of increases in vaccination rates, the economic scars left behind after two years of the pandemic are deep. Inflation and deficits in trade balances reflect supply bottlenecks, pent-up demand, and rising commodity prices in international markets. Support measures and reduced revenues have deteriorated fiscal balances. All these problems have become more pressing because of the immediate impact of the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up prices of oil and other commodities in international markets. Financial sectors in South Asia, already in relatively weakened positions before COVID- 19, were effectively supported during the pandemic, but are facing renewed challenges. In 2019, non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for most countries in the region were higher than the average of emerging markets and developing economies and above the 5-percent warning threshold for banking sector systemic stress. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries introduced lending support measures, including regulatory forbearance, which were extended during subsequent COVID waves. Loan restructuring with public guarantees alleviated banks’ burden to cover potential loan losses and gave banks incentives to provide much-needed liquidity to firms. As a result of these support measures, reported NPL ratios declined during COVID and private sector credit growth was sustained, reaching even 30 and 20 percent growth in Nepal and Pakistan, respectively. However, such fast growth could lead to deterioration of bank asset quality if lender screening isnot adequate and, as most moratorium programs have ended, a resurgence in defaults remains possible. Carefully designed monetary and fiscal policies are needed to weather the new external shocks on top of the legacies of the pandemic. There is limited scope for broad fiscal stimulus as fiscal space is limited and, equally important, the major shocks to South Asian econ

FAQs

What main challenges are described for South Asian countries after the pandemic?

The recovery is uneven and is worsened by the war in Ukraine, alongside high inflation, rising current account deficits, and weakened fiscal balances.

How does the report link the war in Ukraine to economic outcomes in South Asia?

It highlights negative effects through higher international prices for oil and other commodities, which strain income growth and current account balances.

Why does the report argue for redesigning economies beyond growth measures?

It concludes that reshaping economies must go hand in hand with reshaping norms, including redesigning tax systems, increasing competition, and challenging entrenched interests and gender norms.

Jul 19, 2026

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