SKOPE Issues Paper 36 - June 2020 - COVID-19 – Potential Consequences for Education, Training, and Skills - Ewart Keep

Oct 15, 2026

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SKOPE Issues Paper 36 (June 2020) examines how COVID-19 may affect education, training, and skills through its likely consequences for unemployment and labour-market transitions. The paper argues that, with finite public resources, policy should prioritise groups most at risk and focus on interventions that are cost-effective and deliverable as furlough arrangements end and cohorts of leavers face disruption. It also considers longer-run risks of cumulative youth unemployment, sectoral scarring, and constrained organisational capacity to respond without worsening job quality and skills outcomes.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages13

Reading Time33 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Background and Context

The coming recession

Organisational capacity to cope/respond and its implications

SKOPE Issues Paper 36 June 2020 COVID-19 – Potential Consequences for Education, Training, and Skills Ewart Keep Department of Education, Oxford University INTRODUCTION A considerable and rapidly growing volume of reports on the potential impacts of Covid-19 from international and national government agencies, think tanks, management consultancies, and academics is now hitting our in-boxes and desks. What follows is a very modest addition to this burgeoning literature. A version of the paper has been prepared for the 4 Nations College Alliance‘College of the Future’ Commission, and what follows is a slightly amended version. It does not attempt to provide a comprehensive analysis, or to duplicate what others have already said. Its main focus is on youth unemployment and wider transitions into work, but it also has some thoughtson adult unemployment and re-training. This paper is founded upon a basic assumption – namely that if the public money available across all four UK nations to support measures around skills and unemployment is finite, then targeting those most at risk and defining which kinds of measures are the most cost-effective will be important. The information already available (Wilson et al, 2020) suggests that we know reasonably well which sectors, occupations, localities and kinds of people will most likely be hardest hit by the coming recession. The main issues will be deciding: • What groups to prioritise, which interventions will work best and most cost-effectively, and also which can be delivered to swiftly address the immediate problems liable to emerge asthe furlough scheme is wound down and school, college and university leavers hit a disrupted labour market, • and what additional measures will be needed in the longer term as some groups experience extended periods of unemployment. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT The coming recession Many economic commentators thought that the world was heading towards recession before Covid- 19 struck, and there were signs that the UK economy was slowing down and that consumer confidence was limited, not least by levels of household debt that had reached pre-2008 levels. Both Bank of England and OBR forecasts now suggest a deep and potentially quite long-lasting recession (in the UK and elsewhere) . This suggests that the ‘bounce back’ from the impacts of the pandemic may not be as rapid or as strong as some might hope, and what happens in the UK and its constituent nations will be influenced by how well other countries manage to recover. We should also remember that we have yet to fully achieve ‘Brexit’, and that the bulk of commentators expect that this will deliver at the end of this year (if negotiations are not extended) another short to medium-term negative shock to the economy and labour market. Taken together, it seems sensible to plan for a U or L-shaped recession, and if it turns out to be V or W-shaped, then so much the better. In other words, it is probably better to assume and plan for the worst in terms of duration and effect rather than for the best possible outcomes. Moreover, as the IES report (Wilson et al, 2020) on the employment impacts of Covid-19 makes clear, the recessions of the early 1980s, 1990s and the post-2008 crisis all had long-lasting impactson the shape of the labour market and unemployment. In each case, it took about seven years for the negative shock to entirely disappear. It seems entirely likely that Covid-19’s impact will also belong-lived, particularly in some sectors and occupations such as retail, leisure and tourism, and in geographical areas reliant on these industries. We should also remember that in the UK the evidence suggests that in many localities when the economic tide goes out, it subsequently does not wash as high as it previously did when better times eventually return. There are many communities that have yet to‘recover’ from the economic shock administered by the recession of the early 1980s,

FAQs

What guiding assumption does the paper use for policy responses?

Public funding across UK nations to support skills and unemployment measures is finite, so prioritising at-risk groups and identifying cost-effective interventions is essential.

How does the paper expect the recession after COVID-19 to unfold?

It suggests planning for a longer, more persistent recession (such as U- or L-shaped), with the possibility of stronger recovery but a need to assume worse duration and effects.

Why does the paper focus on youth unemployment and transitions into work?

Youth unemployment can become cumulative over time when graduates fail to move into stable work, producing long-lasting labour-market and employment problems.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mia