Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes - Global Estimates

Jul 19, 2026

Simulations estimate how COVID-19-related school closures affect schooling quantity and learning quality across 174 countries under four scenarios that vary closure duration and the effectiveness of government mitigation. Results project substantial declines in learning and effective years of basic schooling, with millions of primary-to-secondary students at elevated risk of dropping out due to pandemic income shocks. The analysis quantifies large present-value economic losses and highlights worsened exclusion and inequality for marginalized groups, potentially delaying progress toward halving learning poverty by 2030.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages40

Reading Time1 h 41 min

Introduction

Global learning crisis and school closure context

Paper scope and contribution

Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates João Pedro Azevedo, Amer Hasan, Diana Goldemberg, Koen Geven, and Syedah Aroob Iqbal This paper presents simulations of the potential effect of COVID-19-related school closureson schooling and learning outcomes. It considers four scenarios—varying in both the duration of school closures and the effectiveness of any mitigation strategies being deployed by governments. Using data on 174 countries, the analysis finds that the global level of school ing and learning will fall substantially. School closures could result in a loss of between 0 .3 and 1. 1 years of schooling adjusted for quality, bringing down the effective years of ba sic schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7 .8 years to between 6.7 and 7.5 years. Close to 11 million students from primary up to secondary education could dropout due to the income shock of the pandemic alone. Exclusion and inequality will likely be exacerbated if already marginalized and vulnerable groups, such as girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities, are more adversely affected by school closures. Students from the current cohort could, on average, face a reduction of $366 to $1,776 in yearly earnings. In present value terms, this amounts to between $6,680 and $32,397 dollars in lost earn ings overa typical student’s lifetime. Globally, a school shutdown of 5 months could generate learning losses that have a present value of $10 trillion. By this measure, the world could stand to lose as much as 16 percent of the investments that governments make in the basic education of this cohort of students. In the pessimistic and very pessimistic scenarios, cumulative losses could add up to between $16 and $20 trillion in present value terms. Unless drastic remedial action is taken, the world could face a substantial setback in achieving the goal of halving the percentage of learning poor by 2030 . JEL Codes: O12, O15, I21, I24, I25 Keywords: COVID-19, Learning Losses, Schooling. The World Bank Research Observer © The Author(s) 2021 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com) [doi: 10.1093/wbro/lkab003 36:1](doi: 10.1093/wbro/lkab003 36:1)–[40](40) Downloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wbro/article/36/1/1/6174606 by Joint Bank/Fund Library user on 06 September 2023](https://academic.oup.com/wbro/article/36/1/1/6174606 by Joint Bank/Fund Library user on 06 September 2023) Introduction The world is undergoing the most extensive school closures ever witnessed. To combat the spread of the COVID-19 virus, more than 180 countries mandated temporary school closures, leaving, at its peak in early April, 2020 close to 1.6 billion children and youth out of school. As of December 2020, 65 school systems remained fully closed while 129 reopened—either partially or fully.1 The education system is witnessing an extraordinary twin shock: the school closures have paused or substantially reduced learning, while parents and the school system are also affected by a global economic recession.2 Unemployment numbers are on the rise, family incomes are falling, and government fiscal space is shrinking, which will likely affect interna tional aid budgets. This shock is being observed simultaneously across the planet.3 This crisis is making a dire situation worse. Even before COVID-19 shut schools down, the world was in the midst of a global learning crisis that threatened countries’ efforts to build human capital—the skills and know-how needed for the jobs of the future. Data from the World Bank and UNESCO showed that 53 percent of children at the end of primary in low- and middle-incom

FAQs

What scenarios does the analysis consider regarding school closures and mitigation?

The study models four scenarios that differ in both the duration of school closures and how effective government mitigation strategies are.

What are the projected impacts on schooling and learning outcomes?

The simulations indicate a substantial fall in schooling and learning, including losses in learning-adjusted years of schooling and reductions in effective lifetime schooling.

Which groups face greater risks due to school closures?

Exclusion and inequality are expected to worsen, particularly for already marginalized and vulnerable groups such as girls, ethnic minorities, and persons with disabilities.

Jul 19, 2026

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