Shooting for the Moon - Can We Cut Cancer Mortality in Canada By 50% By 2050

Sep 23, 2026

Uploaded by Hazel

The study evaluates whether Canada can achieve a “Cancer Moonshot” goal of cutting cancer mortality by 50% by 2050, modeled against current trends. Using the OncoSim microsimulation suite, it estimates projected cancer deaths, quantifies the maximum effect of prevention and increased screening, and identifies the remaining “lunar gap” if the 50% target is unattainable. Results project 133,395 deaths in 2050, with about 33% preventable via risk-factor reduction and screening, leaving a 16%–17% gap requiring further innovations in risk prevention, early detection, and treatment.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryHealthcare

FormatPDF

Pages11

Reading Time28 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

| Shooting for the Moon: Can We Cut Cancer Mortality in Canada By 50% By 2050?
Keaton Banik, BHSc 1, Yibing Ruan, PhD 1,2, Mariet M. Stephen, MSc 1, John M. Hutchinson, BHSc 1 􀀁, Chantelle Carbonell, BHSc1 􀀁 , Matthew T. Warkentin, PhD 1, Andrew Coldman, PhD3,
Rochelle Garner, PhD4, Hawre Jalal, PhD5, and Darren R. Brenner, PhD 1,6 | Cancer Control Volume 32: 1–11
© The Author(s) 2025
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[DOI: 10.1177/10732748251319485](DOI: 10.1177/10732748251319485)[ ](DOI: 10.1177/10732748251319485)[journals.sagepub.com/home/ccx](journals.sagepub.com/home/ccx)

| | --- | --- | | Abstract
Introduction: The United States of America reignited their Cancer Moonshot Initiative in 2022 with an ambitious goal to reduce cancer mortality by 50% over the next 25 years. In this study, we estimated how and whether a similar cancer control initiative could be achieved in Canada.
Methods: We used the OncoSim microsimulation suite to address three questions: (1) what is the expected mortality from cancer in Canada by 2050 given the current trends?; (2) what would be the maximal impact on reducing cancer mortality with prevention and increased screening activities? and,(3) if a 50% reduction in projected cancer mortality could not be achieved through the primary and secondary intervention efforts, what additional advancements and discoveries would be needed to ﬁll the “lunar gap”? We modeled the joint impact of risk-factor reduction and screening, as well as the independent effects of prevention and screening alone, on projected cancer mortality.
Results: Our models suggest that there will be an expected 133,395 cancer deaths in 2050 in Canada. Approximately 33% of these cancer deaths could be prevented by risk-factor reduction and increased screening programs by the year 2050. This would leave a “lunar gap” of about 16%–17% that would need to be bridged with novel discoveries in cancer risk prevention, early detection, and treatment.
Conclusion: While current knowledge and implementation of prevention and screening would have a considerable impact on a Canadian cancer moonshot, additional efforts are needed to implement cancer control initiatives and fuel additional discoveries to ﬁll the gap.
Keywords
cancer epidemiology, prevention, screening, cancer mortality, microsimulation
Received October 9, 2024. Received revised December 19, 2024. Accepted for publication January 21, 2025. | | | 1 Department of Oncology, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
2Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Care Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada 3British Columbia Cancer Research Institute, Vancouver, BC, Canada
4Health Analysis Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
5School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
6Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
Corresponding Author:
Darren R. Brenner, Department of Oncology, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, 3330 Hospital Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada. Email: darren.brenner@ucalgary.ca | | Creative Commons CC BY: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License ([https://](https://)[ ](https://)[creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as speciﬁed on the SAGE and Open Access pages ([https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/](https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/) open-access-at-sage). Introduction In 2016, then Vice President Joe Biden announced the Cancer Moonshot initiative to reduce cancer mortality by 50% in the next 25 years and to improve the conditio

FAQs

What goal does the study examine for Canada’s cancer “Moonshot”?

It assesses whether Canada could reduce cancer mortality by 50% by 2050, similar in ambition to the U.S. Cancer Moonshot initiative.

How do the researchers estimate future cancer mortality in Canada?

They use the OncoSim microsimulation suite to model projected cancer deaths under current trends and under prevention and screening scenarios.

What proportion of projected cancer deaths in 2050 could potentially be prevented?

The results suggest about 33% of projected 2050 cancer deaths could be prevented through risk-factor reduction and increased screening programs.

What is the “lunar gap,” and why does it matter?

If a full 50% reduction cannot be achieved through prevention and screening alone, the remaining difference—about 16%–17%—would need to be bridged by novel discoveries in risk prevention, early detection, and treatment.

Sep 23, 2026

Uploaded by Hazel