Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040 - Research paper - Transparency and transferability of learning outcomes

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Jake

A Cedefop research paper examining how lifelong learning can be shaped through policy scenarios for 2040, with a specific focus on transparency and transferability of learning outcomes. The study outlines an overarching scenario development approach grounded in path dependency, systems thinking, context sensitivity, and design thinking. It describes a four-task methodological process including a literature review, a quasi-Delphi panel, scenario development with axes and indicators, and validation workshops, then sets out key limitations and report structure.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages140

Reading Time5 h 53 min

AccessFree to download

Foreword

Acknowledgements

Tables, figures and boxes

Executive summary

Chapter 1. Introduction

1.1. Overarching approach

1.2. Methodological implementation

1.3. Scenario-related limitations

1.4. Report structure

Chapter 2. Trends and drivers related to the transparency and transferability of learning outcomes

2.1. Introduction

2.2. Trend 1: towards common quality assurance frameworks

2.3. Trend 2: increased opportunities to transfer learning outcomes using credit systems

2.4. Trend 3: more consistent and comparable overviews

2.5. Trend 4: increased opportunities to validate learning outcomes

2.6. Trend 5: increased opportunities to store and build up a digital portfolio

2.7. Trend 6: increased portability across borders

2.8. Trend 7: increasing permeability through flexible admissions

2.9. Trend 8: more tailored learning pathways

EN 1831-5860 Research paper Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040 Transparency and transferability of learning outcomes Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040 Transparency and transferability of learning outcomes Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2026 Please cite this publication as: Cedefop. (2026) . Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040. Transparency and transferability of learning outcomes. Cedefop research paper. Publications Office of the European Union. [http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/7473761](http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/7473761) A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server ([http://europa.eu](http://europa.eu)) . Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2026 © Cedefop, 2026 Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. This means that reuse is allowed, provided appropriate credit is given and any changes made are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by Cedefop, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. PDF ISBN 978-92-896-3932-3 ISSN 1831-5860 Doi: 10.2801/7206784 TI-0 1-26-011-EN-N The European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) is the European Union’s reference centre for vocational education and training, skills and qualifications. We provide information, research, analyses and evidence on vocational education and training, skills and qualifications for policymaking in the EU Member States. Cedefop was originally established in 1975 by Council Regulation (EEC) No 337/75 . This decision was repealed in 2019 by Regulation (EU) 2019/128 establishing Cedefop as a European Union Agency with a renewed mandate. Europe 123, Thessaloniki (Pylaia), Greece Postal: Cedefop service post, 570 01 Thermi, Greece Tel. +30 2310490111, Fax +30 2310490020 Email: info@cedefop.europa.eu [www.cedefop.europa.eu](www.cedefop.europa.eu) Jürgen Siebel, Executive Director Tony Donohoe, Chair of the Management Board Table of Contents Foreword……………………………………………….……………...…………1 Acknowledgements .................................................................................... 2 Tables, figures and boxes .......................................................................... 7 Executive summary .................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1. Introduction ............................................................................ 9 1.1. Overarching approach .............................................................................. 10 1.1.1. Scenario development approach .................................................. 10 1.1.2. Path dependency .......................................................................... 11 1.1.3. Systems thinking........................................................................... 12 1.1.4. Context sensitivity ......................................................................... 12 1.1.5. Design thinking ............................................................................. 12 1.2. Methodological implementation ................................................................ 13 1.2.1. Task 1: literature review ................................................................ 14 1.2.2. Task 2: quasi-Delphi panel............................................................ 15 1.2.3. Task 3: scenario development: axes, indicators, narratives .......... 17 1.2.4. Task 4: scenario validation workshops.......................................... 18 1.3. Scenario-related limitations ...................................................................... 20

FAQs

What is the main subject of the report?

The report develops policy scenarios for 2040 to shape lifelong learning, centered on transparency and transferability of learning outcomes.

How are the scenarios developed in the methodology?

It follows an overarching scenario development approach and implements four tasks: a literature review, a quasi-Delphi panel, scenario development using axes, indicators and narratives, and scenario validation workshops.

Which trends are analyzed in relation to transparency and transferability?

The report covers trends such as common quality assurance frameworks, credit systems enabling transfer, comparable overviews of qualifications and outcomes, validation opportunities, digital learning portfolios, and portability across borders.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Jake