Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) World Bank Assessment Letter - Madagascar

Jul 19, 2026

The assessment letter details Madagascar’s climate-change vulnerability, emphasizing the human, social, and economic costs from extreme weather. Cyclones, droughts, and related shocks drive poverty through both immediate damages and longer-term effects on nutrition and education, with large-scale displacement and recent storm impacts highlighted. It also explains Madagascar’s relatively small emissions contribution alongside high hazard exposure and deep social and economic vulnerability. The letter summarizes national adaptation policy goals and priority areas to strengthen resilience, including governance mainstreaming and action plans across key sectors.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

Country vulnerability to climate change

Human, social and economic costs

Cyclones and drought impacts

Government policies and commitments for adaptation

National Adaptation Plan (PNA) priorities

Sector actions and implementation gaps

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY FACILITY (RSF) WORLD BANK ASSESSMENT LETTER-MADAGASCAR May 29, 2024 A. Country vulnerability to climate change including human, social and economic costs for the country arising from climate change vulnerabilities. Extreme weather events take a heavy toll on Madagascar with climate-related disasters and shockshaving a significant impact on poverty levels, underscoring Madagascar’s vulnerability to climate change. Madagascar has the highest risk of cyclones in Africa and currently experiences three to four cyclones between November and April each year. Major tropical cyclones have hit Madagascar an average of about once every three years since 1998. The costs associated with cyclones are high, with a typical tropical cyclone costing the economy an estimated 1 percent of GDP per year, and up to 8 percent of GDP for once-in-a-century events, devastating rural communities and agriculture along the Eastern Coast. Total losses from cyclones in 2020 alone were equivalent to 4.8 percent of GDP, as per the World Bank’s Global Rapid Damage Estimation (GRADE) . The economic and human impacts of droughts are even larger, especially in the South, where a multi-year severe drought has deepened poverty and food insecurity. Moreover, climate-related disasters and shocks can cause people to fall into poverty both through direct near-term losses and damages, and through long-term indirect impacts on nutrition and education, among others. Overall, from 2008 to 2022, in Madagascar, disasters linked to natural hazards displaced 1.4 million people, 1.3 million of them due to storms alone. Most recently in December 2023, storm Alvaro left a dozen of deaths, around 16,290 victims representing 4,626 households, and material damages in the South of Madagascar. Cyclone Gamane that hit the Northern part of Madagascar in March 2024 impacted up to 89,000 victims and 18,787 houses, and destructed several road infrastructures, with reconstruction costs estimated at $76 million. Although Madagascar is a minor contributor to climate change, it is highly vulnerable to its impacts. In 2020, the country emitted an estimated 40.21 Mt CO2e, or 0.09 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.1,2 In per capita terms, Madagascar’s per capita emissions rank 169th in the world, at just 1.45 tCO2e emitted per person. However, due to its high exposure to climate hazards, deep social and economic vulnerabilities, dependency on natural capital, and other factors, Madagascar is considered one of the countries that are most vulnerable and least prepared to cope with climate change, ranked 172nd of 185 countries by the 2022 ND-GAIN Index.3 B. Government policies and commitments for climate change adaptation and priority areas to strengthen resilience. Madagascar’s National Adaptation Plan (PNA), published in 2021, explicitly references the Plan Emergence Madagascar and aims to strengthen adaptation governance and mainstream adaptation, including in priority sectors, and mobilize finance.4 It includes a diverse array of actions, with a 10-year perspective, including the creation of a “green belt” to prevent desertification and enhance climate resilience; promoting adaptation in agriculture, especially in the Grand Sud; improving access to drinking 1 GHG data is sourced from Climate Watch data for historical greenhouse gas emissions: [https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions](https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ghg-emissions). Noting the NDC estimates are different, but the CCDR has used the Climate watch data for global benchmarking purposes. 2 Madagascar first NDC (2015) indicates that the country absorbed a total of-63,121 MteqCO2 in 2010. The same document estimated that the country will continue to absorb-23,609 MteqCO2 in 2020 but will be a net emitter by 2030 with estimated emissions of 22 MteqCO2 . [https://cbit](https://cbit)[madagascar.mg/wp-content/uploads/

FAQs

How does climate change affect poverty in Madagascar according to the assessment?

Climate-related disasters and shocks can push people into poverty through direct losses and damages, and through longer-term indirect impacts such as effects on nutrition and education.

What do the letter’s cyclone and drought examples show about disaster exposure?

The letter highlights frequent cyclone risk, large economic costs, and that drought impacts are especially severe in the south, where prolonged drought deepens poverty and food insecurity.

What policy framework and priority areas are cited to strengthen climate resilience?

Madagascar’s National Adaptation Plan (PNA), published in 2021, references national emergence priorities and aims to improve adaptation governance and mainstream adaptation across priority sectors. It includes actions such as a green belt, agricultural adaptation, drinking water improvements, early warning systems, reforestation, coastal infrastructure protection, and more resilient cities.

Jul 19, 2026

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