Research Briefs - I N E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y - Number 250 - Does Education Matter?

Oct 15, 2026

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Examines whether education generates lasting social and economic benefits by testing England’s compulsory schooling extensions in 1919–1922, 1947, and 1972. Uses linked register, land value, and death-record sources to estimate effects on permanent income, mortality, and migration to higher-amenity districts. Results show no gains consistent with prior wage or health expectations, including near-zero estimated house-value income effects and no survival improvements for cohorts.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages3

Reading Time8 min

AccessFree to download

Does Education Matter?

Evidence from schooling extensions (1919–1922, 1947, 1972)

Natural experiment design and data sources

House values as income proxies

District outcomes: migration and deprivation

Mortality and health implications

Interpreting near-universal beliefs versus counterevidence

Research Briefs I N E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y February 10, 2021 | Number 250 Does Education Matter? Tests from Extensions of Compulsory Schooling in England and Wales By Gregory Clark , University of California , Davis; and Neil Cummins, London School of Economics T here has been clamor and dismay at the expected future economic and social costs forchildren affected by school closures from COVID-19 . A New York Times editorial, for example, stated: “A learning reversal of this magnitude could hobble an entire generation.” A blog post from the Brookings Institution assumed that the wage loss from losing a year of schooling is 10 percent. It is also feared that the poorest students will suffer most. However, the nearly universal belief in the substantial social and economic benefits of education faces some disquieting counterevidence. School closings will likely have little social cost. One piece of counterevidence is the effects of England’s extensions of compulsory schooling in 1919–1922, 1947, and 1972. This shows compellingly that more schooling for students of lower socioeconomic status produced little or no gains in incomes or in broader measures of living standards, such as longevity. The age for required school attendance in England was increased from 12 to 14 between 1919 and 1922, from 14 to 15 in 1947, and from 15 to 16 in 1972. These extensions of schooling all increased years of schooling by around 0.5 years forthe children affected. This increase in schooling shows up clearly in contemporary enrollment data by age, thus making this a convincing natural experiment on the effects of education. Earlier studies of the 1947 and 1972 extensions of schooling seemingly confirmed substantial wage gains for the affected cohorts, in the order of 10 percent per year of schooling. However, later studies suggested that the wage gains from the 1947 and 1972 extensions were much lower, and potentially even zero. And additional research convincingly showed an absence of any mortality improvements from the 1947 and 1972 extensions. In our research, we exploit some new large-scale sources to examine the social and economic effects of the 1947 and 1972 schooling extensions and to also measure the effects of the 1919–1922 extension. One new source is the estimated value of the houses that were inhabited by males affected by the reforms in 1999. The United Kingdom (UK) electoral register of that date gives the addresses of all registered voters. The UK Land Registry allows us to calculate average house values by postal code in England for 1996–2016, where typically a postal code covered just one street. House values are a good proxy for lifetime income. We can link a subset of uniquely named male voters to birth records for England and Wales for five years before and after each schooling extension (we link only males because female surnames change upon marriage). The affected cohorts would be aged 89, 66, and 42, respectively, when observed in 1999. Our analysis of the effects of the 1947 schooling extension, by quarter of birth for the affected cohorts, finds that there is no sign of the 5 percent increase in permanent income thatthe schooling literature would predict. Indeed, the point estimate is for no gain at all. The picture is the same for the 1972 extension. The point estimate of the gains is again zero, and it is statistically impossible that the gain was the expected 5 percent. Figure 1, which shows the effects of the 1972 extension on house values, illustrates just how convincing the Editor, Jeffrey Miron, Harvard University and Cato Institute 2 Figure 1 Impact of the 1947 and 1972 educational extensions on house values Log ( house va lue) | 12.0 | | | --- | --- | | 11.9 | | | 11.8 | | | 11.7 | | | 11.6 | | | 11.5
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 | | Birth year absence of gain from another 0.5 years of schooling is for the affected cohorts. Suppose that, despite our failure

FAQs

Which education policy changes are analyzed in the research brief?

The brief analyzes compulsory schooling extensions in England from 1919–1922, 1947, and 1972, each increasing required attendance and adding about 0.5 years of schooling for affected students.

How does the study estimate lifetime income effects?

It links male voters affected by the reforms to birth records and uses UK Land Registry house values by postal code as a proxy for lifetime income.

What do the results show about earnings and health outcomes?

Estimated effects on permanent income are near zero, and there is no evidence of mortality or survival improvements for cohorts affected by the 1947 and 1972 extensions.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mia