RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025 - Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Fahsai

Research brief examining how a popular narrative that college may not be worth the investment could be influencing students’ future education expectations, especially among first-generation students. Using National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies data, the analysis finds bachelor’s-degree expectations declined from 2002 to 2022 and uncertainty about intended highest degree increased, with first-generation students consistently holding lower expectations. The brief contextualizes changes alongside parental expectations and correlational trends tied to concerns about paying for college.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages3

Reading Time8 min

AccessFree to download

Research Brief September 2025

Purpose and Context

Parental Expectations vs. Student Expectations

Data and Methods

Trends in Bachelor’s Degree Expectations (2002, 2009, 2022)

First-Generation vs. Continuing-Generation Differences

Increasing Uncertainty Over Time

Figures and Sources

References

Dedicated to supporting college access and success for low-income and first-generation students through unimpeachable research and statistics. RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025 Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years for Both First-Generation and Continuing Generation Students Sean Simone, Ph. D. Elise Christopher, Ph. D.1 In recent years, a narrative has taken hold in the popular media that college may not be worth the investment, given the increasing costs of college (Baumhardt & Julin, 2019; CBS News, 2024; Cheung, 2023; Farrington, 2022; Mowreader, 2024; Ruppel Shell, 2018) . However, national studies have consistently shown that higher levels of education are related to higher pay, upward mobility, improved health outcomes, and greater civic involvement (Ma, Pender, & Welch, 2019; Perna, 2005) . The purpose of this brief is to explore whether this narrative may be affecting the educational expectations of students. A survey from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation indicates high expectations from parents with children younger than 18 years old. Fifty-nine percent of parents prefer their child to enter college after high school, with 40% wanting their child to attend a four-year institution (Markem, 2025) . Students’ own expectations for their higher education may not align with those of their parents. This analysis uses data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program.2 These studies surveyed students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school and asked about their high school or postsecondary degree expectations. As shown in Figure 1, student expectations to attain a bachelor’s degree were lower in 2022 (44%) than in 2009 (59%) and 2002 (72%) . First-generation students, defined here as students whose parents attained a high school diploma as their highest degree,3 have consistently had lower education expectations compared to those with parents with a bachelor’s degree or higher across all years. However, the expectations of both groups have decreased over time (see Figure 2) . For first-generation students, in 2002, some 60% of students expected to attain at least a bachelor’s degree, compared to about a third (33%) in 2022. Similar declines are evident for students with at least one parent with a bachelor’s degree, with 83% wishing to attain a bachelor’s degree in 2002, a rate that declined to just over half of respondents (53%) in 2022. FIGURE 1: Percentage of students who have education expectations at or above the bachelor’s degree: 2002, 2009, and 2022 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 71.6% 2002 2009 2022 Year of High School Survey Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and the High School and Beyond Study of 2022. Analysis by authors. 1. Research Associate, Agora Education Research. 2. This brief uses data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, and the High School and Beyond Study of 2022. See [https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/slsp](https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/slsp). 3. Due to data limitations, we could not combine groups of less-than-high school, high school graduates, and those with some college into one group. 1025 Vermont Ave., NW, Suite 400 | Washington, DC 20005 | 202-347-7430 | Visit [us online @ pellinstitute.org](us online @ pellinstitute.org) Dedicated to supporting college access and success for low-income and first-generation students through unimpeachable research and statistics. RESEARCH BRIEF SEPTEMBER 2025 FIGURE 2: Percentage of students who have education expectations at or above the bachelor’s degree, by parents’ education level: 2002, 2009, and 2022 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 82.6% High school or equivalent Parents’ highest education level Bachelor’s degree or higher 2002 2009 2022 S

FAQs

What is the main purpose of this research brief?

To examine whether the media narrative that college may not be worth the investment is affecting students’ educational expectations. The brief focuses on changes over time, particularly for first-generation students.

Which data source does the analysis use?

It uses data from the National Center for Education Statistics Secondary Longitudinal Studies Program, surveying students during their freshman or sophomore years of high school and collecting degree expectations.

What trends does the brief report from 2002 to 2022?

Bachelor’s-degree expectations decrease over time, while uncertainty about the intended highest degree increases. The brief also reports consistently lower expectations among first-generation students across the years studied.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Fahsai