Relative Age Effects and the Premier League’s Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP): A Comparison of Birthdate Distributions Within and Between Age Groups - research summary

Sep 17, 2026

Uploaded by Connor

This study examines relative age effects (RAEs) in England’s elite football pathway by comparing birthdate distributions within and between U18, U21, and professional senior squads. Players from the highest divisions for each age group were analyzed using birthdate, position, and age, with nationality recorded for U21 and senior players and estimated market value for senior players. Chi-square tests, Cramer’s V, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals compared observed versus expected distributions, revealing bias toward relatively older players in U18 and U21, plus increasing prevalence across each age band, while senior squads showed no significant deviations overall, by age band, or by position.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages10

Reading Time25 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Elite youth development and early identification

What relative age effects are and prior findings

RAEs within England and the EPPP context

Journal of Science in Sport and Exercise [https://doi.org/10.1007/s42978-024-00285-w](https://doi.org/10.1007/s42978-024-00285-w) Relative Age Effects and the Premier League’s Elite Player Performance Plan (EPPP): A Comparison of Birthdate Distributions Within and Between Age Groups Greg Doncaster1 · Adam L. Kelly2 · Alexander B. T. McAuley2 · Andrew Cain3 · Mark Partington1 · Lee Nelson1 · Jimmy O’Gorman1 Received: 24 November 2023 / Accepted: 8 April 2024 © The Author(s) 2024 Abstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of relative age effects (RAEs) within and between U18, U21 and professional senior squads, that compete in the highest (respective) leagues within England. Birthdate, playing position and age (years) of U18 (n = 487), U21 (n = 350), and senior (n = 396) players from squads competing in the highest divisions of their respective age groups were obtained. Moreover, nationality (UK or Non-UK) was recorded for U21 and senior players, with estimated market value also obtained for senior players. Chi-square tests, Cramer’s V and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used to compare observed and expected birthdate distributions. A selection bias toward relatively older players was evident within U18 and U21 squads, across all positions. Furthermore, analysis of age bands within each age group also revealed an increase in the prevalence of RAEs throughout each age group. In contrast, analysis of senior squads revealed no significant deviations in birthdate distributions when considered as a whole sample, as separate age bands or by position. However, although non-significant, Q4 players were found to have the highest estimated market value. Results demonstrate RAEs are prevalent across U18 and U21 age groups at the highest level of competitive football within England, yet this is not representative of the birthdate distributions within senior squads. Ongoing research is needed to highlight the prevalence of RAEs within academies, particularly when these RAEs are not representative of birthdate distributions within professional senior squads. Keywords Talent development · Talent identification · Team sports · Competition · Underdog hypothesis Introduction Football academies are responsible for identifying and developing young players to reach their potential, with the ultimate aim of achieving professional status to provide both sporting and financial success for their respective club [31] . In England, under the guise of the Elite Player Performance plan (EPPP, Premier [29]), professional football academies * Greg Doncaster [doncasg@edgehill.ac.uk](doncasg@edgehill.ac.uk) 1 Department of Physical Activity and Sport, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Edge Hill University, Ormskirk L39 4QP, UK 2 Athlete Development and Youth Sport (ADYS) Lab, Research Centre for Life and Sport Sciences (CLaSS), Birmingham City University, Birmingham, UK 3 Kitman Labs, Dublin, Ireland can sign individuals as young as aged 8 years—although many clubs are recruiting players much younger than this as part of their pre-academy programmes [15] . Early identification of talented youth football players can help maximize the possibility of providing (long-term) expert support to the most talented players. However, the complex nature of identifying those who have the talent to achieve expertise often results in a preference for current performance capabilities rather than long-term potential, which manifests in the prevalence of relative age effects (RAEs) (see [15] for an overview in football) . Relative age effects are a well-known phenomenon that refers to a distinct over-representation of players born earlier in the selection year (e.g., individuals born in September in England where the cut-off dates are September to August) for a given cohort [7] . The existence of a selection-bias toward players born earlier in the selection year is commonly reported within younger age groups acros

FAQs

What was the main purpose of the study?

To investigate how relative age effects (RAEs) appear within and between U18, U21, and professional senior squads competing in England’s top relevant leagues.

How were birthdate distributions compared in the research?

By obtaining players’ birthdates (and other variables), then using chi-square tests, Cramer’s V, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals to compare observed and expected birthdate distributions.

What did the results show for U18 and U21 compared with senior squads?

A selection bias toward relatively older players was evident in U18 and U21 squads, and RAEs increased across age bands within each group; in contrast, senior squads showed no significant deviations overall, by age band, or by position.

Sep 17, 2026

Uploaded by Connor