Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty - April 2022

Jul 19, 2026

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Reality Check examines how uncertainty shapes economic recovery and growth prospects across the Middle East and North Africa. Building on an April 2022 MENA Economic Update, it analyzes heterogeneous shocks from the Ukraine war and the continuing pandemic effects, then evaluates an uneven economic outlook. The report also addresses the challenge of forecasting when data are opaque, clarifying how uncertainty affects projections and policy-relevant expectations across the region.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages72

Reading Time3 h 1 min

Contents

Chapter I - Recovery Under Uncertainty

Chapter II - Forecasting Growth when Data are Opaque

Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized MENA ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2022 130~~29~~ REALITY CHECK: FORECASTING GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICAIN TIMES OF UNCERTAINTY WORLD BANK MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION MENA ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2022 Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africain Times of Uncertainty 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; [Internet: www.worldbank.org](Internet: www.worldbank.org)[ ](Internet: www.worldbank.org)Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 25 24 23 22 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/) [by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license](by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license), [you are free to copy](you are free to copy), [distribute](distribute), [transmit](transmit), [and adapt this work](and adapt this work), [including](including) [for commercial purposes](for commercial purposes), under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif M.; Wood, Christina A.; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Nguyen, Ha. 2022. “Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty” Middle East and North Africa Economic Update (April), Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10. 1596/978-1-4648-1865-3 . License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail

FAQs

What uncertainty factors does the report highlight for MENA growth?

It focuses on heterogenous impacts from the Ukraine war and the ongoing effects of the pandemic in MENA, both of which add to uncertainty for recovery and growth.

How does the report describe the region’s economic outlook?

It characterizes recovery as uneven under uncertainty, reflecting differing conditions across countries and sectors.

Why does the report emphasize forecasting when data are opaque?

It addresses how limited or unclear data complicate growth forecasting and reduce confidence in projections during periods of uncertainty.

Jul 19, 2026

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