Re-framing the threat of global warming - an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse - Research paper

Oct 26, 2026

Increasing concern holds that climate change creates an existential risk to humanity, yet the causal pathways linking climate change to societal collapse remain insufficiently evidenced. This paper builds a structured empirical evidence base connecting climate change, food insecurity, and societal collapse. It reviews collapse and existential risk literature, defines determinants, and applies a new methodology using these determinants as proxies. A causal loop diagram at global scale and national granularity visualizes evidence spread, supporting exploration of impacts on agriculture, food supply, shocks, instability, and conflict.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages19

Reading Time48 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Climate change as an existential risk

Food insecurity pathway and worst-case scenarios

Literature review

Historical evidence and mechanisms of societal collapse

Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse C. E. Richards 1 & R. C. Lupton 1,2 & J. M. Allwood 1 Received: 20 April 2020 /Accepted: 5 January 2021/Published online: 19February 2021 \# The Author(s) 2021 Abstract There is increasing concern that climate change poses an existential risk to humanity. Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management. However, our knowledge of the causal pathways through which climate change could cause societal collapse is underdeveloped. This paper aims to identify and structure an empirical evidence base of the climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse pathway. We first review the societal collapse and existential risk literature and define a set of determinants of societal collapse. We develop an original methodology, using these determinants as societal collapse proxies, to identify an empirical evidence base of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse in contemporary society and then structure it using a novel-format causal loop diagram (CLD) defined at global scale and national granularity. The resulting evidence base varies in temporal and spatial distribution of study and in the type of data-driven methods used. The resulting CLD documents the spread of the evidence base, using line thickness and colour to depict density and typeof data-driven method respectively. It enables exploration of how the effects of climate change may undermine agricultural systems and disrupt food supply, which can lead to economic shocks, socio-political instability as well as starvation, migration and conflict. Suggestions are made for future work that could build on this paper to further develop our qualitative understanding of, and quantitative complex systems modelling capabilities for analysing, the causal pathways between climate change and societal collapse. Keywords Climate change. Food security. Existential risk . Starvation . Conflict . Migration * J. M. Allwood [jma42@cam.ac.uk](jma42@cam.ac.uk); allwood–[office@eng.cam.ac.uk](office@eng.cam.ac.uk) C. E. Richards [cer76@cam.ac.uk](cer76@cam.ac.uk) R. C. Lupton [rcl38@bath.ac.uk](rcl38@bath.ac.uk) Extended author information available on the last page of the article 1 Introduction Despite recent social protests and climate emergency declarations, efforts to mitigate climate change to-date are insufficient (Ripple et al. 2019) . Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise and global warming above 3 °C is increasingly likely this century (Raftery et al. 2017) . There is emerging evidence of amplifying feedbacks accelerating (Natali 2019) and dampening feedbacks decelerating (Walker et al. 2019) . These feedbacks exacerbate the possibility of runaway global warming (Steffen et al. 2018), estimated at 8 °C or greater by 2100 (Schneider et al. 2019) . Such temperature increases translate to a range of real dangers (The Center for Climate and Security 2020), shifting the narrow climate niche within which humans have resided for millennia (Xu et al. 2020) . Looking beyond the framing of ‘global warming’, there is concern that the effects of climate change may pose an existential risk to humanity, one that threatens ‘societal collapse’or even extinction (Ord 2020) . Understanding these worst-case scenarios is essential for good risk management (Kunreuther et al. 2013) . Improving awareness of potential pathways through which climate change poses such a risk can help inform decision-making about interventions (Shepherd et al. 2018) . Considering societal impacts that are more tangible for individuals, businesses and governments (Briggs et al. 2015), and better aligned with conventional risk priorities (Wagner and Weitzman 2015), may facilitate more effective action to mitigate climate change (Weber 2006) . A number of pathways through which climate change could cause societal coll

FAQs

What problem does the paper address about climate change and societal collapse?

It addresses the gap in understanding the causal pathways through which climate change could lead to societal collapse, noting that empirical evidence is underdeveloped.

How does the paper build its empirical evidence base?

It reviews relevant literature, defines determinants of societal collapse, and uses these determinants as proxies to develop an original methodology for identifying evidence across contemporary society.

What is the purpose of the causal loop diagram (CLD) in the paper?

The CLD structures the causal pathways and visualizes how evidence spreads, using line thickness and color to indicate evidence density and the type of data-driven method.

Oct 26, 2026

Upload by Lucas Martin