Proceedings of Statistics Canada Symposium 2014 - Beyond Traditional Survey Taking - Demosim’s Population Projection Model - Updates and New Developments

Sep 18, 2026

Uploaded by Noah

This paper provides an overview of the main new features to be incorporated into the forthcoming Demosim microsimulation projection model, using microdata from the 2011 National Household Survey. It details additions to the base population, including new variables created through data linkage, and describes methods under consideration for projecting language variables, citizenship, and religion for events simulated by the model.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages6

Reading Time15 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

1. Introduction

2. New developments related to the base population

Proceedings of Statistics Canada Symposium 2014 Beyond traditional survey taking: adapting to a changing world Demosim’s Population Projection Model: Updates and New Developments by Éric Caron-Malenfant 1,2 Abstract This paper provides an overview of the main new features that will be added to the forthcoming version of the Demosim microsimulation projection model based on microdata from the 2011 National Household Survey. The paper first describes the additions to the base population, namely new variables, some of which are added to the National Household Survey data by means of data linkage. This is followed by a brief description of the methods being considered for the projection of language variables, citizenship and religion as examples of the new features for events simulated by the model. Keywords: Population projections, microsimulation, demography. 1. Introduction Demosim is a microsimulation projection model developed and maintained by Statistics Canada. Its main purpose is to produce projections by various population characteristics for small geographies, including census metropolitan areas (CMAs) . It starts with microdata from Canadian population censuses and projects the individuals in the population one at a time by having them “experience” various events over time until they die, emigrate or reach the end of the simulation. During the simulation, this initial population is augmented by immigrants and births. On the basis of assumptions concerning the probabilities of experiencing the simulated events, the model produces population tables that cross-tabulate the variables considered for future reference dates.3 Built essentially on a cost-recovery basis, Demosim has permitted the development of various projection products. These products include official population projections (such as Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Caron-Malenfant et al. 2010) and Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Caron-Malenfant and Morency 2011)),4 methodological and analytical papers,5 custom tabulations, and short-term projections used by Statistics Canada surveys. To date, these products have been developed using versions of Demosim based on data from the complete 2001 and 2006 censuses. 1 Statistics Canada, Main Building 1708, 150 Tunney’s Pasture Driveway, Ottawa, Canada, K1A 0T6, eric.caronmalenfant@statcan.gc.ca. 2 The author would like to thank the rest ofthe Demosim team, on whose behalf he spoke at the 2014 International Methodology Symposium. In addition to the author, the following people worked on updating Demosim: Melanie Abeysundera, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Karla Fox, Harry François, Nora Galbraith, Dominic Grenier, Chantal Grondin, René Houle, Mark Knarr, Stéphanie Langlois, Laurent Martel, Jean-Dominique Morency, Soumaya Moussa and Martin Spielauer. Thanks also to Marc Lachance for reviewing a preliminary version of this paper. 3 For a general description of the microsimulation methods used in population projections, see Van Imhoff and Post (1997) and Willekens (2011) . 4 Please see these two publications for more information on the methodology of the previous version of Demosim (based on 2006), which forms the basis of the new version outlined here. The first version of the model (based on 2001) is documented in Bélanger and Caron-Malenfant (2005) and Bélanger et al. (2008) . 5 For example, see Caron-Malenfant et al. (2011) and Spielauer (2014) . Since then, funding has been allocated to update Demosim with more recent data, in particular data from the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) .6 This paper provides an overview of some of the new features that will accompany this update. Since Demosim is being completely redesigned, only some of the new features being added are described here. Developments affecting Demosim’s base population are covered first. Then, examples of changes in the methods and data sou

FAQs

What is Demosim and what is its main purpose?

Demosim is a microsimulation projection model developed and maintained by Statistics Canada. It produces projections for various population characteristics for small geographies by simulating individuals experiencing events over time.

What data and adjustments will generate the new base population?

The new base population will be generated from 2011 National Household Survey microdata. The microdata will undergo adjustments for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves.

Which new variables are added to support language, citizenship, and religion projections?

The update includes variables for language spoken most often at home and knowledge of official languages, as well as citizenship and immigrant admission category. It also includes religion as part of the base population and considers methods for projecting these language and demographic attributes.

Sep 18, 2026

Uploaded by Noah