Principal Turnover - Using Teacher-Assessments of Principal Quality to Understand Who Leaves the Principalship

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by acoobca

The article estimates how principal quality relates to principal turnover, focusing on which principals leave their roles and how that departure affects school climate and student outcomes. It measures principal quality using teachers’ perceptions and studies New York City public schools (2013–2016), then replicates at the national level using Schools and Staffing Survey data (2008–2012). Linear probability regressions link principal exits to teacher-assessed quality while controlling for teacher, principal, school, district/state, and time characteristics. Higher-quality principals are less likely to leave across contexts and years.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages33

Reading Time1 h 23 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Research design and methods

Data sources and study periods

Statistical approach

Findings

Conclusions

Principal Turnover: Using Teacher-Assessments of Principal Quality to Understand who Leaves the Principalship Aliza N. Husain 1, Luke C. Miller2, and Daniel W. Player2 Educational Administration Quarterly 2021, Vol. 57(5) 683–715 © The Author(s) 2021 Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[DOI: 10.1177/0013161X211011235](DOI: 10.1177/0013161X211011235)[ ](DOI: 10.1177/0013161X211011235)[journals.sagepub.com/home/eaq](journals.sagepub.com/home/eaq) Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this article is to estimate the relationship between principal quality and turnover. Principals can have potentially large effects on student outcomes. When school leaders leave their roles, they cause disruptive effects to the school’s climate. If effective principals are more likely to leave, the negative effects of principal turnover are likely exacerbated. Relatively little, however, is known about the quality of principals who leave the principalship. Research design: We use teachers’ perceptions of their principals as a measure of principal quality to understand the quality of principals who leave schools. We address this research question in New York City public schools from 2013 to 2016, and then replicate it at the national level using the Schools and Staffing Survey data from 2008 to 2012. To understand how principal quality relates to principal turnover, we run linear probability regressions of principal exits on (teacher-assessed) principal quality, controlling for a set of teacher, principal, school, district/state, and time characteristics. Findings: We find that higher quality principals are less 1 University at Buffalo, The State University of New York (SUNY), Buffalo, NY, USA 2University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA Corresponding Author: Aliza N. Husain, Graduate School of Education, University at Buffalo, State University of New York (SUNY), 467 Baldy Hall, North Campus, Buffalo, NY 14228, USA. Email: [alizahus@buffalo.edu](alizahus@buffalo.edu) likely to leave their schools. This finding persists across school contexts and time, lending robustness to our results. Conclusions: Findings suggest that inasmuch as principal turnover is a concern, it is not driven by higher quality principals. Districts should therefore focus on recruiting more higher quality principals as opposed to focusing on reducing overall principal turnover. Moving forward, research should focus on differential attrition patterns so that efforts to retain principals can be better targeted. Keywords principal quality, principal turnover, teacher ratings, school context, recruitment Introduction National data show that approximately 20% of public school principals in the United States leave their positions each year (Miller, 2013; Snodgrass Rangel, 2018) . Policy makers are right to be concerned with principal turnover because it is disruptive to the school (Bartanen et al., 2019). Relatively little, however, is known about why principals leave and who chooses to leave (Tekleselassie & Choi, 2019). A recent literature review on principal turnover summarizes several studies that examine the demographic predictors of principal turnover (e.g., principals’ sex, race, age, experience, and education) as well as principals’ stated job satisfaction (Snodgrass Rangel, 2018), but did not find any studies that attempted to identify whether principal effectiveness predicts turnover. Important to our understanding of the full implications of principal turnover, however, is the relationship between principal effectiveness and the likelihood of principal departures. Specifically, are the principals who are most effective in their schools the most likely to leave their schools because they have more chances for better opportunities? Or, are the least effective principals more likely to leave their positions, either due to selfsorting or structural mechan

FAQs

How does the study measure principal quality?

It uses teachers’ perceptions of their principals as the measure of principal quality.

What data sources are used to analyze principal turnover?

The study analyzes New York City public schools from 2013 to 2016, then replicates nationally using Schools and Staffing Survey data from 2008 to 2012.

What do the results show about the relationship between principal quality and turnover?

Higher quality principals are less likely to leave their schools, and the pattern holds across school contexts and time.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by acoobca