Preventable Failure - Research Summary - Improvements in Long-Term Outcomes when High Schools Focused on the Ninth Grade Year

Oct 15, 2026

Research summary on preventing high school course failure by focusing on the ninth-grade year, especially the transition from eighth to ninth grade in Chicago Public Schools. It explains how ninth-grade attendance and course performance predict long-term dropout risk, and how schools used real-time data reports, ninth-grade coordinators, and summer transition programs. The summary highlights system-wide performance improvements and the resulting impact on students’ long-term outcomes, linking graduation priorities to evidence-informed dropout prevention practices.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages16

Reading Time40 min

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Preventable Failure

Research Summary

Previous Research

Preventable Failure: Dropout Prevention and the On-Track Indicator

RESEARCH SUMMARY APRIL 2014 Preventable Failure Improvements in Long-Term Outcomes when High Schools Focused on the Ninth Grade Year Melissa Roderick, Thomas Kelley-Kemple, David W. Johnson, and Nicole O. Beechum PREVIOUS RESEARCH Allensworth, E., and Easton, J. Q. (2007) . What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research. Allensworth, E., and Easton, J. Q. (2005) . The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research. Dive deeper into UChicagoCCSR’[s findings about on-track rates at the on-track website: ontrack.uchicago.edu](s findings about on-track rates at the on-track website: ontrack.uchicago.edu) | This report was produced by UChicago CCSR’s publications and communications staff: Emily Krone, Director for Outreach and Communication; Bronwyn McDaniel, Communications and Research Manager; and Jessica Puller, Communications Specialist. | Graphic Design: Jeff Hall Design
Photography: Cynthia Howe
Editing: Ann Lindner | | --- | --- | [04.2014/pdf/jh.design@rcn.com](04.2014/pdf/jh.design@rcn.com) PREVENTABLE FAILURE Research Summary In 2007, spurred by University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research (UChicago CCSR) research reports, leadership atthe Chicago Public Schools (CPS) began a new targeted approach to reducing course failure in the ninth grade. The research suggested that the transition between eighth and ninth grade played a critical role in shaping students’ long-term outcomes, and demonstrated that students’attendance and course performance in the ninth grade year were highly predictive of high school dropout. Schools across Chicago initiated new strategies to improve that transition, making use of new data reports for monitoring and supporting students in real time, as well as ninth grade coordinators, and summer transition programs. On its face this does not seem like an approach that would produce a system shift in performance, redefine approaches to school dropout, and call into question the conventional wisdom that urban neighborhood high schools could not make radical improvements. And yet CPS’s focus on on-track achieved all of this. It moved an entire system, including many traditional neighborhood high schools that had been condemned as dropout factories. This is a summary of an upcoming UChicago CCSR research report that examines the dramatic improvements in the number of CPS ninth-graders who were on-track to graduation and the impact these improvements had on students’long-term outcomes. Developing effective approaches to reducing dropout rates is one of the highest priorities in education today. Despite weak economic prospects for young adults without high school diplomas,1 one-fourth of adolescents in the United States still do not make it to graduation.2 Graduation rates in urban districts are particularly low.3 Furthermore, gaps in educational attainment by income have actually grown in recent decades.4 A focus on high school graduation could help reverse this trend. In fact, a recent report by RAND on the minority attainment gap concluded that among the available policy options for increasing educational attainment, equalizing high school graduation rates between white and Hispanic and white and African American students would have the highest cost-benefit ratio of any strategy.5 Urban educators are under increasing pressure to increase high school graduation rates, while simultaneously raising student achievement for all students. However, educators are seldom provided with concrete guidance on what they could do that would make an immediate difference in the success of their students. For example, principals reading the Institute for Education Science’s (IES) What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) report on dropout prevention—intended to summarize best practices and ident

FAQs

What problem does the report focus on?

The report focuses on preventing ninth-grade course failure and reducing high school dropout by improving the transition between eighth and ninth grade.

Why is the ninth-grade transition considered critical?

The transition is linked to marked declines in grades, attendance, and engagement, and course failure in ninth grade is shown to be highly predictive of dropout risk.

What approach did Chicago Public Schools adopt to support students?

Chicago schools used real-time data reports to identify students at risk, along with ninth-grade coordinators and summer transition programs, centered on the “on-track” indicator.

Oct 15, 2026

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