Predictive validity of level 3 qualifications - Predictors of degree performance

Oct 20, 2026

Higher education admissions rely on prior attainment, personal statements, and references, but the study focuses on whether level 3 school leaving qualifications act as valid predictors of undergraduate success. Using HESA student records for full-time first-degree entrants in 2010/11 who completed in 2012/13, the report analyzes Extended Project, Cambridge Pre-U, the International Baccalaureate, and BTEC Diploma. Multilevel logistic regression compares qualification grades with degree outcomes while controlling for gender, prior institution, socio-economic status, institutional mission group, and subject area, showing qualification attainment is a strong indicator of degree class.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages72

Reading Time3 h 1 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Background and aim of the research

Methodology

Results

Introduction

Data

Methods

Results

Extended Project

Cambridge Pre-U

International Baccalaureate

BTEC Level 3 Diploma

Discussion

References

Appendix A: Subject areas at university

Appendix B: Extended Project – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (EP students only)

Appendix C: Extended Project – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (all students)

Appendix D: Cambridge Pre-U – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (all students)

Appendix E: International Baccalaureate – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (IB students only)

Predictive validity of level 3 qualifications Extended Project, Cambridge Pre-U, International Baccalaureate, BTEC Diploma Tim Gill and Carmen Vidal Rodeiro Cambridge Assessment Research Report 29th July 2014 1 Author contact details: ARD Research Division Cambridge Assessment 1 Regent Street Cambridge CB2 1GG [gill.tim@cambridgeassessment.org.uk](gill.tim@cambridgeassessment.org.uk) [vidal.c@cambridgeassessment.org.uk](vidal.c@cambridgeassessment.org.uk) [http://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/](http://www.cambridgeassessment.org.uk/) Cambridge Assessment is the brand name used by the University of Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicate (UCLES) . UCLES is a non-teaching department of the University of Cambridge and has various subsidiaries. The University of Cambridge is an exempt charity. How to cite this publication: Gill, T. & Vidal Rodeiro, C. L. (2014) . Predictive validity of level 3 qualifications: Extended Project, Cambridge Pre-U, International Baccalaureate, BTEC Diploma. Cambridge Assessment Research Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Assessment. Contents Executive Summary Introduction ................ Data Methods Results Extended Project …………………. ..………. ..............…………….…………………. .….…………… Cambridge Pre-U ................ International Baccalaureate BTEC Level 3 Diploma Discussion References Appendix A: Subject areas at university Appendix B: Extended Project – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (EP students only) Appendix C: Extended Project – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (all students) Appendix D: Cambridge Pre-U – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (all students) Appendix E: International Baccalaureate – full results for Russell Group and non-Russell Group models (IB students only) 4 7 10 11 14 15 31 43 49 56 59 61 62 64 68 72 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background and aim of the research Higher education institutions use a range of sources of information to determine who should be offered a place to study one of their courses. These sources of information include, among others, prior educational attainment, personal statements and academic references. Admission practices usually vary between institutions but, in general, prior qualifications and attainment are the main criteria used by those institutions. It is therefore important that such qualifications, when used for university selection purposes, demonstrate that they are valid predictors of academic performance. In England, the vast majority of students applying to study a course in a higher education institution hold academic qualifications such as AS/A levels. However, increasing proportions of students now enter higher education with alternative qualifications. For example, AS/A levels are sometimes supplemented with or replaced by other academic qualifications such asthe Cambridge Pre-U, the International Baccalaureate or the Extended Project. And, recently, there has been an increase of students holding more applied or vocational qualifications such as applied AS/A levels, advanced diplomas, Cambridge Nationals and, particularly, BTECs. The main aim of this work was therefore to investigate the ability of a range of school leaving qualifications (Cambridge Pre-U, International Baccalaureate, Extended Project and BTEC) that are either alternatives to AS/A levels or are taken alongside them , to predict success in higher education courses. In the context of this research, the predictive validity of a qualification was defined as the effectiveness of the results in that qualification as predictors of undergraduate degree performance. Methodology The data used in this research was an extract from the HESA student records dataset, covering all full-time students who started a first degree (expected not to last more than three years) in the academic year 2010/

FAQs

What does predictive validity mean in this research?

Predictive validity is defined as how effectively a qualification’s results predict undergraduate degree performance.

Which qualifications are investigated as alternatives to AS/A levels?

The report examines Extended Project, Cambridge Pre-U, International Baccalaureate, and BTEC Diploma alongside or instead of AS/A levels.

How is the predictive relationship between qualifications and degrees assessed?

Grades in each qualification are compared with subsequent degree outcomes using descriptive analyses and multilevel logistic regression, controlling for gender, prior institution, socio-economic status, institutional mission group, and subject area.

Oct 20, 2026

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