Predictive Validity of Kindergarten Progress Monitoring Measures Across the School Year - Application of Dominance Analysis

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mimi

Although multiple tools exist for monitoring kindergarten reading progress, direct comparisons are limited regarding which measures best predict year-end reading skills and how predictive validity shifts across the school year. The study followed 426 kindergarten students at risk for reading difficulty using paper-based progress monitoring measures and a computer-adaptive test. Dominance analyses evaluated unique prediction relative to other measures. The computer-adaptive test led early prediction, fluency measures dominated later, and implications guide measure selection.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages15

Reading Time38 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Study purpose and comparison across the year

Methods and dominance analyses

Key findings and implications

Keywords

Predictive Validity of Kindergarten Progress Monitoring Measures Across the School Year: Application of Dominance Analysis Assessment for Effective Intervention 2019, Vol. 44(4) 241–255 © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2018 Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[DOI: 10.1177/1534508418775805](DOI: 10.1177/1534508418775805)[ ](DOI: 10.1177/1534508418775805)[aei.sagepub.com](aei.sagepub.com) Nathan H. Clemens, PhD 1, Yu-Yu Hsiao, PhD2, Leslie E. Simmons, MEd3, Oi-man Kwok, PhD3, Emily A. Greene, MEd3, Michelle M. Soohoo, MEd3, Maria A. Henri, MS3, Wen Luo, PhD3, Christopher Prickett, MA3, Brenna Rivas, PhD4, and Stephanie Al Otaiba, PhD4 Abstract Although several measures are available for monitoring kindergarten reading progress, little research has directly compared them to determine which are superior in predicting year-end reading skills relative to other measures, and how validity may change across the school year as reading skills develop. A sample of 426 kindergarten students who were considered to be at risk for reading difficulty at the start of kindergarten were monitored across the year with a set of paper-based progress monitoring measures and a computer-adaptive test. Dominance analyses were used to determine the extent to which each measure uniquely predicted year-end reading skills relative to other measures. Although the computeradaptive test was the most dominant predictor at the start of the year over letter sound fluency, letter naming fluency, and phoneme segmentation fluency, letter sound fluency was most dominant by December. Measures of fluency reading real words administered across the second half of the year were dominant to all other assessments. The implications for measure selection are discussed. Keywords early literacy, progress monitoring, curriculum-based measurement, reading For many students, kindergarten is a time when formal reading instruction begins. In most contemporary kindergarten reading curricula, instruction initially targets the development of basic skills such as phonemic awareness (e.g., segmenting and blending words) and alphabetic knowledge (e.g., identifying letters by name and sound), and gradually transitions across the year to show how those skills are used for decoding words and reading simple texts (e.g., Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2014; Pearson, 2011) . Given the variety of early reading skills that children learn in kindergarten, it is important to understand which skills may serve as important indices for monitoring kindergarten reading development. Formative assessment (i.e., progress monitoring) provides teachers with timely feedback on students’learning and responsiveness to instruction, and is particularly important for students who are struggling or at risk for subsequent reading difficulties (Gersten et al., 2009) . Although many different forms of assessment can be used for progress monitoring, a popular framework is Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM), which uses brief skill probes that are indicative of achievement in a broader academic domain (Deno, 1985, 2003) . The measurement of oral reading of connected text (i.e., CBM-R) is one of the most widely studied forms of CBM, and research has demonstrated that CBM-R serves as a fairly stable index of overall reading achievement across Grades 2 to 5 (Fuchs, Fuchs, Hosp, & Jenkins, 2001; Reschly, Busch, Betts, Deno, & Long, 2009) . To support intervention efforts with students in earlier grades, such as kindergarten, progress monitoring methodologies have been extended downward to assess foundational and prereading skills. The diversity of skills that represent kindergarten reading achievement is reflected in the variety 1 The University of Texas at Austin, USA 2The University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, USA 3Texas A&M University, College Station, USA 4Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, U

FAQs

What is the main goal of the study?

To determine which kindergarten progress monitoring measures best predict year-end reading skills and how their validity changes across the school year.

How was student progress monitored during the study?

Researchers monitored 426 at-risk kindergarten students across the year using paper-based measures and a computer-adaptive test.

Which measure was most dominant at the start of the year and later in the year?

At the start, the computer-adaptive test was most dominant, while by December letter sound fluency became most dominant; later, fluency measures reading real words dominated.

Why are these findings important for educators?

The results inform which tools to select for efficient and accurate monitoring, especially as curriculum demands and skill development change over time.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Mimi