Predicting dropout intention in Moroccan universities - A first-year student study using Tinto’s model

Oct 15, 2026

Student attrition remains a pressing concern in open-access faculties in Moroccan universities. Identifying key factors influencing first-year students’ dropout intention is crucial. Grounded in Tinto’s (1993) Model of Institutional Departure, this quantitative study surveyed 2,220 first-year students across thirteen faculties in two universities to assess academic and social perceptions. A prediction model used “intent to reenroll” as a proxy for dropout intention. Results from binary logistic regression showed lower initial commitments, weaker academic integration and social integration, and weaker subsequent commitments significantly predict dropout intention, with academic integration and subsequent commitments strongest.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages12

Reading Time30 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Reform of Moroccan higher education and the LMD system

Dropout, graduation, and employment challenges in open-access faculties

Research gap and study purpose

Conceptual approach using “intent to reenroll”

African Educational Research Journal Vol. 13(4), pp. 423-434, October 2025 ISSN: 2354-2160 Full Length Research Paper Predicting dropout intention in Moroccan universities: A first-year student study using Tinto’s model Mansouri Zoulal Laboratoire de Recherche en Management des Organisations (LAREMO), Hassan II University of Casablanca, Morocco. Accepted 22 October, 2025 | ABSTRACT
Student attrition remains a pressing concern in open-access faculties in Moroccan universities. Identifying key factors influencing first-year students’ dropout intention is crucial. Grounded in Tinto’s (1993) Model of Institutional Departure, this quantitative study surveyed 2,220 first-year students across thirteen faculties in two universities to assess their perceptions of academic and social experiences, and to evaluate a prediction model using “intent to reenroll” at their faculty of registration the following year, as a proxy for dropout intention. Results of the binary logistic regression indicated that lower levels of initial commitments, academic integration, social integration, and subsequent commitments significantly predicted dropout intention. Academic integration and subsequent commitments were the strongest predictors. These findings suggest the need for targeted institutional strategies to enhance student persistence, particularly during the first year.
Keywords: Moroccan university, dropout, open-access faculties, first-year students, academic integration, social integration, intent to reenroll. | | --- | | Email: [E-mail: mansourizoulal@gmail.com. Tel:](E-mail: mansourizoulal@gmail.com. Tel:) 0212631030233. | INTRODUCTION Moroccan higher education has undergone significant reforms in the past twenty-five years, including the National Charter for Education and Training (NCET 1999), Law 01 .00, the Strategic Vision (CSEFRS, 2015), and the Framework Law (51 . 17) . The most notable reform, introduced in 2000 through Law 01.00, established the Licence-Master-Doctorat (LMD) system, modelled after the Bologna Process. Implemented from 2003-2004, the LMD aimed to enhance quality, improve mobility, and facilitate international recognition of degrees (CSEFRS, 2014) . In 2010, a strategic initiative was launched to diversify university models. This led to expanded publicprivate partnerships and the creation of new universitystatus institutions alongside public universities. Despite these developments, public universities remain predominant and marked by a dual system, comprising selective institutions with competitive admissions (12%), and open-access faculties, namely the Faculties of Letters and Human Sciences (FLHS) , Science (FS) , and Law, Economics, and Social Sciences (FLESS) , hosting 88% of students (CSEFRS, 2018a) . While open-access faculties give a wider public more opportunities to access higher education, they face high dropout and unemployment rates. Only 58.7% of students in the Licence des Études Fondamentales (LEF) programs graduate within three years, and 64% leave without a degree (CSEFRS, 2018b) . Dropout is most critical in the first two years: 25 .2% leave after one year and 40.2% after two. The FLESS register the highest dropout and lowest graduation rates, followed by the FS and FLHS (CSEFRS, 2019) . Unemployment affects 18.7% of graduates from these faculties, compared to 2.9% from non-university institutions and 5.6% from private higher education. Four years post-graduation, the LEF degree holders still face a 21% unemployment rate, exceeding the national average of 16. 1% . These figures reflect persistent employment challenges and a misalignment between graduate qualifications and employer expectations (CSEFRS, 2018b) . Despite institutional strategies to improve student retention through pedagogical innovations (LMD system), the reinforcement of ICT in teaching, the implementation Afr Educ Res J 424 of tutoring programs, the provision of psychosocial support services, and an increase

FAQs

What theoretical model guides the study on dropout intention?

The study is grounded in Tinto’s (1993) Model of Institutional Departure and focuses on how institutional experiences relate to intention to leave.

How does the study measure dropout intention without tracking actual dropout behavior?

It uses “intent to reenroll” at students’ registered faculty the following year as a proxy for dropout intention.

Which factors were significant predictors of dropout intention?

Binary logistic regression indicates that lower initial commitments, academic integration, social integration, and subsequent commitments significantly predict dropout intention, with academic integration and subsequent commitments as the strongest predictors.

Oct 15, 2026

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