Predicting College Success: How Do Different High School Assessments Measure Up?

Oct 3, 2026

The study evaluates how different high school assessments forecast first-year college success in California State University (CSU) and University of California (UC) settings. It compares predictive validity among the Smarter Balanced Assessment (SBAC), SAT, and high school GPA, focusing on outcomes including first-year GPA and second-year persistence. The analysis examines whether relationships vary across student subgroups such as race/ethnicity and socioeconomic disadvantage, using descriptive methods rather than causal inference.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages55

Reading Time2 h 19 min

AccessFree to download

California’s State Standards and Assessments

Smarter Balanced Assessments

Smarter Balanced Assessments and College Outcomes

Purpose of the Analysis

Data

Analysis Plan

University of California

RESULTS

Predicting College Success: How Do Different High School Assessments Measure Up? Michal Kurlaender & Kramer A. Cohen University of California, Davis Note: The research reported here was supported by the Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education, through Grant R305E150006 to the Regents of the University of California. The opinions expressed are those of the authors alone and do not represent views of the Institute or the U.S. Department of Education, or of the agencies providing data. 2 California’s State Standards and Assessments • Common Core State Standards (2010) – Focused on college and career readiness – More rigorous – Integrated across subject areas • Smarter Balanced Assessments (2014-15) – Summative assessments (end-of-year tests) in ELA and mathematics grades 3-8 and 11 – 11th grade assessment as a marker for college readiness 3 Smarter Balanced Assessments • Summative Assessment – Computer Adaptive – Performance Task • Criterion-referenced test, scale score across grade levels • Performance Level ① Standard Not Met ② Standard Nearly Met ③ Standard Met ④ Standard Exceeded 4 Smarter Balanced Assessments • Summative Assessment – Computer Adaptive – Performance Task • Criterion-referenced test, scale score across grade levels • Performance Level è 11th grade signal ① Standard Not Met “Not Ready” ② Standard Nearly Met “Not Yet Ready” ③ Standard Met “Conditionally Ready” ④ Standard Exceeded “Ready” Smarter Balanced Assessments and College Outcomes 5 • Investigating K-12—postsecondary alignment under new state standards • How does the Smarter Balanced Assessment measure up to other commonly used assessments for predicting college success? • Equity implications for college eligibility and admissions 6 Purpose of the Analysis • How well do the Smarter Balanced Assessment (SBAC), SAT, and high school grade point average (HSGPA) predict first-year college outcomes for students enrolled in the California State University (CSU) or University of California (UC) campuses? • Do the relationship between these assessmentsand early college outcomes differ by key student subgroups (race/ethnicity and socioeconomic disadvantage)? 7 Data • California 11th grade students who took the Smarter Balanced Assessment (2014-15) – Demographics: race/ethnicity, gender, socioeconomic disadvantage, English learners • Match to first time freshmen in 2016-17 at CSU and UC (respectively) – Application Information: SAT scores, HS GPA – Outcomes: First Year GPA and 2nd year persistence 8 Analysis Plan • Test predictive validity of common assessments (HSGPA, SAT, SBAC) for early college outcomes: first year GPA, persistence to year two . • Note: this is a descriptive analysis highlighting the association between each assessment and early college outcomes, and should not be interpreted as causal! 9 Analysis Plan • Fit a series of adjusted multiple correlations to examine strength of the relationship between HSGPA, SBAC, and SAT and early college outcomes • Control for a variety of individual and institutional characteristics • Adjust for the “restricted range” of grades and test scores based on UC/CSU applicant pool University of California RESULTS

FAQs

Does the study treat the analysis as causal?

No. The analysis is descriptive, highlighting associations between assessments and outcomes, and should not be interpreted as causal.

Oct 3, 2026

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