Post-Pandemic Onset Public School Enrollment and Mobility: Evidence From Virginia - Evidence From Virginia

Oct 15, 2026

Post-Pandemic Onset Public School Enrollment and Mobility: Evidence From Virginia examines how public school enrollment and student movement changed after the pandemic began. Using statewide Virginia student-level data, the study finds pre-K–12 enrollment fell 4% from fall 2019 to the first postpandemic fall of 2020, driven mainly by fewer new enrollees and also by higher exits. Declines varied by grade and demographics, with notable decreases in transfers, especially for Black, economically disadvantaged students and students with disabilities. The results inform equity, school funding, and student well-being.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time18 min

AccessFree to download

Motivation

Research questions and implications

Data

Virginia statewide student-level data

Results

Statewide post-pandemic onset enrollment

Findings and equity implications

Briefs Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis December 2024, Vol. 46, No. 4, pp. 788–794 DOI: 10. 3102/01623737231178299 Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)© 2023 AERA. [https://journals.sagepub.com/home/epa](https://journals.sagepub.com/home/epa) Post-Pandemic Onset Public School Enrollment and Mobility: Evidence From Virginia Beth E. Schueler Luke C. Miller University of Virginia Public school enrollment dramatically decreased during the pandemic, but the patterns of decline and student movement across schools are not yet well understood. Using statewide student-level data from Virginia, we find pre-K–12 enrollment dropped by 4% between fall 2019 and the first postpandemic fall of 2020. The changes were the largest in pre-kindergarten and kindergarten and explained mostly by decreases in new enrollees, though exits also increased. K–12 enrollment declines were the largest among White and economically-advantaged students (but largest for Black and economically-disadvantaged pre-kindergartners). We also observe a decline in school transfers (both within and between districts), concentrated among Black and economically-disadvantaged students and students with disabilities. Findings have implications for equity, school funding, and student well-being. Keywords: equity, family/home education, planning, policy, descriptive analysis Motivation The pandemic created unprecedented disruptions to school systems around the globe and the United States was no exception. One consequence was a dramatic plunge in public school student enrollment, described by some press outlets as a“pandemic exodus” (Goldstein & Parlapiano, 2021) . Previous estimates suggest that K–12 enrollment fell 2% nationally in fall of 2020 (Dee et al., 2021) and between 3% and 4% when looking within the states of Michigan (Musaddiq et al., 2021), Massachusetts (Dee & Murphy, 2021), and Hawaii (Murphy & Oeda, 2022) . Given variation in the COVID-19 response across schools and districts, it is also possible that the pandemic saw different levels of student movement across schools than in previous years. However, many basic facts about how enrollment changed with COVID are not yet well established and there is much to learn about whether and how patterns differed across and within states. How did student enrollment shift after the pandemic began? Did changes vary by student grade level or demographic characteristics? Were shifts due to changes in the number of new enrollees or exits from the system? Were students transferring to new schools or districts at different rates than pre-pandemic? The answers to these questions have implications for how scholars interpret changes in student outcomes before versus after the onset of the pandemic given the possibility of systematic compositional shifts in the public-school population over this period. The answers also have important implications for levels and equity of school funding (Malkus & Christensen, 2022), which is in large part based on enrollment counts, as well as for student learning which is influenced by the quality of schools that students attend (e.g., Jennings et al., 2015) and the extent of transfers across schools over time (Goldhaber, Koedel et al., 2022) . We study these questions in Virginia, making a few key contributions to the small existing Virginia’s Post-Pandemic Public School Enrollment literature on enrollment in the aftermath of the pandemic. First, given that offering remote-only instruction reduced enrollment nationally (Dee et al., 2021), Virginia is a uniquely interesting context because the state relied on high levels of remote instruction during the first “reopening”year relative to other states. Specifically, Goldhaber, Kane et al. (2022) place Virginia in the highest quartile among all states of 2020–21 weeks spent in remote learning. Halloran et al.(2021) report Vi

FAQs

How much did pre-K–12 enrollment decline in Virginia after the pandemic began?

Pre-K–12 enrollment dropped by 4% between fall 2019 and the first postpandemic fall of 2020.

What factors most contributed to the enrollment decline?

The changes were explained mostly by decreases in new enrollees, though exits also increased.

Did the study find changes in student transfers and mobility?

Yes. The study observed a decline in school transfers (within and between districts), concentrated among Black and economically disadvantaged students and students with disabilities.

Oct 15, 2026

Upload by MrHarris58