Pledging to Do “Good”: An Early Commitment Pledge Program, College Scholarships, and High School Outcomes in Washington State

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by dabgoudw

Examines Washington State’s College Bound Scholarship (CBS), an early commitment need-based program offering low-income middle school students state financial aid in exchange for pledges to do well in high school, be a good citizen, avoid felony convictions, and apply for federal aid. Uses a triple-difference approach to estimate effects on high school grades, graduation, juvenile detention and rehabilitation, and state prison incarceration during high school or early adulthood. Results show substantively small, statistically insignificant, and often negative effects, challenging the rationale for early commitment pledge programs.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages24

Reading Time1 h 0 min

AccessFree to download

Study Focus and Policy Background

College Attainment Gaps and Motivation for Early Promises

CBS Program Structure and Legislative Intent

Identification Strategy and Outcomes

Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences (DnDnD)

Academic, Detention, and Incarceration Outcomes

Conceptual Model and Related Literature

Human Capital Theory and Forward-Looking Decisions

Mechanisms Linking College Aid to Enrollment and Success

Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis March 2020, Vol. 42, No. 1, pp. 110–133 DOI: 10.3102/0162373719889051 Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)© 2019 AERA. [http://eepa.aera.net](http://eepa.aera.net) Pledging to Do “Good”: An Early Commitment Pledge Program, College Scholarships, and High School Outcomes in Washington State Dan Goldhaber American Institutes for Research Mark C. Long University of Washington Trevor Gratz Jordan Rooklyn Center for Education Data & Research Indiana, Oklahoma, and Washington each have programs designed to address college enrollment gaps by offering a promise of state-based college financial aid to low-income middle school students in exchange for making a pledge to do well in high school, be a good citizen, not be convicted of a felony, and apply for financial aid to college. Using a triple-difference specification, we estimate the effects of Washington’s College Bound Scholarship program on students’ high school grades, highschool graduation, juvenile detention and rehabilitation, and incarceration in state prison during high school or early adulthood. We find insignificant and substantively small or negative effects on these outcomes. These results call into question the rationale for such early commitment programs. Keywords: at-risk students, educational policy, higher education, high schools, middle schools, student behavior/attitude, policy analysis, quasi-experimental analysis, regression analyses The past eight decades have witnessed significant increases in the proportion of U.S. students enrolling and graduating from college (Ryan & Bauman, 2016) . Despite this progress, substantial educational attainment gaps still exist between low-and high-income students (Duncan et al., 2017; Ziol-Guest & Lee, 2016) . Aud et al.(2011), for instance, report a 29-percentage-point gap between students from low-and high-income families in the share attending either a 2- or 4-year college in the fall immediately after completing high school, and Kena et al. (2015) report a 45-percentage-point gap in graduation from college. Empirical research has identified a variety offactors that contribute to the persistence of college enrollment gaps; one key issue is that disadvantaged students often lack the academic preparation necessary to succeed in college (Jacob & Linkow, 2011; Kirst et al., 2004; Rosenbaum, 2001) .1 One way that states and localities are working to address college attainment gaps is by offering low-income students an early promise of funding for college in exchange for making a pledge.2 And several states (described below) link statebased college aid programs to low-income students making an early (during seventh to ninth grades) promise to do well in high school, be a good citizen (e.g., by not committing a felony), and complete a Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). These “early commitment pledge programs” are hypothesized to help students by making college more affordable and, An Early Commitment Pledge Program, College Scholarships, and High School Outcomes in Washington State importantly, the early promise of funding is thought to set them on the right path by creating a strong incentive for them to do well in highschool, avoid criminal activity, and fulfill pledge requirements. Understanding whether these types of programs increase student achievement and college readiness is immensely important, but much of the existing evidence of such programs is weak, primarily because prior studies have lacked data necessary to establish suitable control groups. Washington State’s“College Bound Scholarship Program”(“CBS”) is an early commitment needbased scholarship program designed to encourage economically disadvantaged middle school students to “choose a path that will lead to educational success after high school.” The goal of this article is to

FAQs

What is Washington State’s College Bound Scholarship (CBS) program?

CBS is an early commitment need-based scholarship for economically disadvantaged middle school students. It provides college funding in exchange for pledging to do well in high school, be a good citizen (including not committing a felony), and apply for federal student aid (FAFSA).

How did the study evaluate the program’s effects?

The study uses a difference-in-differences-in-differences (DnDnD) identification strategy comparing eligible, nearly eligible, and ineligible students before and after CBS availability.

What were the main findings for high school and justice-related outcomes?

The program produced substantively small, statistically insignificant, and/or negative effects on academic outcomes. There is some suggestive evidence that eligibility reduces incarceration likelihood, but results were not consistently statistically significant and were sensitive to model specification.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by dabgoudw