Non-preventable cases of breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer in 2050 in an elimination scenario of modifiable risk factors

Sep 21, 2026

Most Western countries are projected to see rising numbers of new cancer cases each year, driven by avoidable risk factors and population aging. Using hypothetical elimination scenarios for multiple major modifiable risks, the study estimates the number of non-preventable new cases in 2050 for postmenopausal breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers in Denmark. Results compare 2021 baseline case counts with 2050 projections under 0%, 50%, and 100% instant reductions of smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption, using NORDCAN data and Prevent modeling to inform future healthcare planning.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages9

Reading Time23 min

AccessFree to download

Background

Purpose

Methods

[www. nature.com/scientificreports](www. nature.com/scientificreports) OPEN Non‑preventable cases of breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer in 2050 in an elimination scenario of modifiable risk factors Frederik Knude Palshof1,2*, Lina Steinrud Mørch1, Brian Køster1, Gerda Engholm1, Hans Henrik Storm1, Therese M.‑L. Andersson 3 & Niels Kroman1,2 Most Western countries have increasing number of new cancer cases per year. Cancer incidence is primarily influenced by basically avoidable risk factors and an aging population. Through hypothetical elimination scenarios of multiple major risk factors for cancer, we estimated the number of new cancer cases that are non‑preventable in 2050. We compare numbers of new postmenopausal breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer cases in 2021 to projected numbers of new cases in 2050 under prevention scenarios regarding smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption: no intervention, 50%, and 100% instant reduction. Cancer incidence data were derived from NORDCAN, and risk factor prevalence data from the Danish National Health Survey. Cancer projections were calculated with the Prevent program. Hypothetical 100% instant elimination of major risk factors for cancer in Denmark in 2022 will result in unchanged numbers of new breast and colorectal cancers in 2050. The number of new prostate cancers will increase by 25% compared to 2021. Unchanged risk factor levels will result in noticeable increase in cancer burden. Increase in life expectancy and age will entail an increase in cancer incidence, despite maximum effect of preventive actions in the population. Our results are important when planning future health care. In recent years, the number of new cancer cases per year has risen in Western countries1, dominated by the most common cancers, breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer. Data on incident cancers in the Nordic countries can be found in the Nordic cancer statistics database NORDCAN2,3. This is based on the Nordic cancer registries and thus has a high level of completeness. Prediction estimates made in NORDCAN for the Nordic countries for these common cancers suggest that during the next 20 years, the number of new cases will, on average, increase by 26%. The most significant increases for colorectal cancer (29%) and prostate cancer (26.5%)4,5. A larger number of cancer cases will increase the pressure on the healthcare system. Preventive actions not accounted for in NORDCAN could be taken, changing the projections for cancer in the Nordic populations. Modifiable risk factors that increase the risk of the most common cancers are widely described and documented, especially when it comes to tobacco smoking6–8, overweight and obesity9–11, and alcohol consumption12–16. Reducing the prevalence of these factors in a population is thus a general approach for preventing future cancer cases. Studies on the number of incident cancers that could be avoided in the Nordic countries by various prevention strategies are described by Andersson et al.17–19. These studies state that over 30 years, 133,000 breast, lung, and colorectal cancer cases could be avoided, equivalent to about 15% of incident cancers related to the mentioned risk factors. However, these studies were based on calculations for one risk factor at a time rather than combinations of multiple risk factors. A study by Islami et al.20 reported that 32.4% of all cancer incidents in the U.S. in 2014 were caused by tobacco smoking, excess body weight, or alcohol consumption. Age, however, is the most critical risk factor for developing cancer, especially in developing epithelial cancers, where increasing age dramatically increases the risk21,22. In a Western country like Denmark, the number of people aged 65 years and older will increase by 34%, and the number of people older than 80 years will more than double from 2020 to 2050, according to Statistics Denmark23. Presently, in Denmark, 66% of cance

FAQs

What does the study estimate for 2050?

It estimates the number of new postmenopausal breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer cases in Denmark in 2050 under prevention scenarios targeting major modifiable risk factors.

Which risk factors are included in the elimination scenarios?

The scenarios address smoking, overweight and obesity, and alcohol consumption, with instant reductions of 50% or 100% starting in 2022.

What data and model are used to generate the projections?

Cancer incidence data are derived from NORDCAN, risk factor prevalence data come from the Danish National Health Survey, and projections are calculated with the Prevent program.

Sep 21, 2026

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