Measuring the Economic Returns to Postsecondary Education at Scale - An Analytic Framework and Findings from Texas - May 2026

Oct 15, 2026

An analytic framework and empirical findings quantify the economic returns to postsecondary education at scale in Texas. The study leverages data managed by the University of Houston Education Research Center, outlining estimation choices such as the data sources, time frame, included individuals, and student groupings. It also explains how cumulative net VAE is measured and documents limitations of the approach. Results cover bachelor’s degrees, associate’s degrees, and certificates, followed by implications for stakeholders.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages126

Reading Time5 h 18 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Key findings

Introduction

Study background

Overview of the approach

Approach to Measuring Cumulative Net VAE

What data do we use to estimate cumulative net VAE?

What time frame do we estimate cumulative net VAE for?

Which individuals do we include in the study?

What groups of students do we estimate cumulative net VAE for?

How do we estimate cumulative net VAE?

What are the limitations of the approach?

Findings

Bachelor’s degrees

Associate’s degrees

Certificates

Implications

References

Technical Appendix

Data and sample

Estimating cumulative net VAE

Measuring the Economic Returns to Postsecondary Education at Scale An Analytic Framework and Findings from Texas May 2026 Jonah Deutsch, Whitney Kozakowski, Naihobe Gonzalez, and Jessica Wagner This project relies on data managed by the University of Houston Education Research Center. The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinion or official position of the University of Houston Education Research Center, the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, the Texas Workforce Commission, or the State of Texas. Acknowledgements We are grateful for the contributions of those who made this study possible. We thank Wynn Rosser and David Troutman at the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board and Jeanette Narvaez and Catherine Horn at the University of Houston Education Research Center (ERC) for their work in helping us access and use ERC data and facilitating our programming efforts. We are indebted to our partners at the Postsecondary Commission for their thought partnership, guidance, and support, including Stig Leschly, Chelsea Pennucci, Jen Dirmeyer, and Joseph Ching. We would also like to acknowledge the Postsecondary Commission’s primary donors for this study, the Gates Foundation and the ECMC Foundation. We thank select technical members of the Postsecondary Commission’s Advisory Board—Zachary Bleemer, Ben Castleman, Preston Cooper, and Doug Webber—for their expertise, time, and commitment. We are grateful to the members of the Mathematica study team who performed the data cleaning, programming, and analysis that made this report possible, led by Alma Vigil and including Maria Bartlett, Addison Larson, Nicardo McInnis, Moriah Schwartz, and Sonia Pace. This report was improved by detailed reviews by Brian Gill, editing by Jennifer Brown, and formatting by Sheryl Friedlander. Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................................................... ii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................viii A. Key findings .................................................................................................................................................................................viii I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 A. Study background ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1 B. Overview of the approach ........................................................................................................................................................4 II. Approach to Measuring Cumulative Net VAE ............................................................................................................................ 7 A. What data do we use to estimate cumulative net VAE? ..............................................................................................7 B. What time frame do we estimate cumulative net VAE for?........................................................................................8 C. Which individuals do we include in the study?................................................................................................................8 D. What groups of students do we estimate cumulative net VAE for? .......................................................................9 E. How do we estimate cumulative net VAE? .......................................................................................

FAQs

What is the main goal of the report?

The report measures the economic returns to postsecondary education at scale in Texas using an analytic framework and presenting findings across degree and credential types.

What does the study use to estimate cumulative net VAE?

It specifies the data used for estimation, the time frame, which individuals are included, and the student groups for which cumulative net VAE is estimated.

What types of education outcomes does the report present?

Findings are reported for bachelor’s degrees, associate’s degrees, and certificates, followed by broader implications.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Aria Callaghan