Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum - Technical Paper 2 - Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods, and Urbanization: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad

Jul 19, 2026

Technical Paper 2 examines how the permanent shrinking of Lake Chad shapes local economic development through two linked channels: population growth and urbanization in the vulnerable Sahel region. The analysis highlights that Lake Chad lost about 90% of its surface water between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, while adaptation measures remain limited. It contrasts lake recession effects across farming, fishing, irrigation, cattle herding, transport, and potential long-run adaptation.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages36

Reading Time1 h 31 min

AccessFree to download

3.1 Introduction

Research focus and motivation

Economic effects of drying lakes

Study design and countries of interest

Periodization and key background figures (Lake area evolution, map)

Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Lake Chad Regional Economic Memorandum | Development for Peace Technical Paper 2. Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods, and Urbanization: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad Remi Jedwab (George Washington University), Federico Haslop (George Washington University), Takaaki Masaki (World Bank), and Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán (World Bank) 114 3.1 Introduction There is a vast economic literature studying the effects of climate change on long-run growth, migration, urbanization and human capital, among several other outcomes. A sizable portion of this literature has been dedicated to the study of weather trends and shocks, and droughts in particular—an area of research of increasing importance in a world that is projected to become considerably drier by the end of the century (see C.-E. Park et al. 2018; S. Hsiang and Kopp 2018) . Nevertheless, very little attention has been paid in the literature to how aridification can impact livelihoods through the disappearance of lakes and other water resources. Lake Chad, once the second largest wetland in Africa (Hutchinson et al. 1992), lost about 90 percent of its surface water area—around 23,000 sq km—between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s. This is equivalent to the total area of 4,200 American football stadiums, in just 20 years. Alternatively, 23,000 sq km is about 10 percent more than the total area of El Salvador, Israel or Slovenia. While its water level has been slightly recovering since the mid-1990s, it is still on average 80 percent less than in the mid-1960s. The resultant increasingly harsh environment, in the absence of climate change adaptation measures, has led to the development of self-serving political elites in northern Nigeria and furthered the eruption of the Boko Haram conflict (Onyia 2015) . It is all the more important to study this research question as lakes are important economic assets for various developing regions and countries of the world, such as the Caspian Sea in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and Western Asia, or Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika, Lake Malawi, Lake Bangweulu and Lake Turkana in East Africa. Importantly, Africa has ten of the fifty largest lakes in the world.252 Before shrinking, Lake Chad was the 11th largest lake in the world and the 4th largest lake in Africa. Other major examples of drying lakes include the Aral Sea (Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), formerly the fourth largest lake in the world, and Lake Urmia (Iran), formerly the largest lake of the Middle East. Both shrunk to less than 10 percent of their former size. However, the reasons for their aridification differ. For Lake Chad, aridification came from long-term climate change. For the two other lakes, human actions were responsible. First, the Aral Sea dried up because its feeding rivers were diverted by Soviet irrigation projects. Second, Lake Urmia dried up because its feeding rivers were dammed. In contrast, as explained below, Lake Chad dried up for mostly geographical—and locally exogenous—reasons. Understanding the local economic effects of drying lakes is not straightforward, as lake recessions can have ambiguous effects. On the one hand, a receding lake frees up arable land that can be used for farming. On the other hand, a receding lake can negatively impact fishing communities, farmers that rely on the lake’s waters for their irrigation needs, and cattle herders who need the lake’s waters and the vegetation around it so that their cattle can drink and eat enough. In poor and poorly connected countries, urban communities may also rely on the lake for transporting goods. Furthermore, asa lake keeps drying, the arable land that was originally freed up may also aridify. All these factors may result into intensified competition over limited resources, potentially feeding into conflicts. At the same time, in the longer run, r

FAQs

Why does the paper focus on the shrinking of Lake Chad instead of general climate impacts?

The paper argues that existing climate-change literature largely overlooks how aridification can affect livelihoods through the disappearance of lakes and water resources. Lake Chad’s dramatic, prolonged shrinkage creates a clear setting to study these mechanisms.

How can lake shrinking affect local economies in the short run?

Lake recession can free up arable land for farming, but it can also harm fishing communities, irrigation-dependent farmers, cattle herders, and even urban groups that rely on lake transport. The mixed impacts may intensify competition over scarce resources.

How does the paper structure the analysis of Lake Chad’s shrinkage over time?

It divides the full timeline into three subperiods: pre-1965 (Large Lake Chad), 1965–1995 (Shrinking Lake Chad), and post-1995 (Recovering Lake Chad). It then examines population growth and urbanization outcomes linked to these phases.

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Evangeline