肯尼亚：联合世界银行-IMF债务可持续性分析 - 外债风险与压力情景评估

Jul 19, 2026

Joint World Bank-IMF debt sustainability analysis for Kenya evaluates both overall and external risk of debt distress, concluding high risk overall despite sustained dynamics. It links the assessment to fiscal consolidation under the IMF-supported program after prior high deficits and 2020 pandemic-related export and output losses. The document revises debt burden projections upward versus the last DSA due to weaker 2022 growth, REER depreciation in 2023:H1, greater program financing access, SDR recording effects, and higher interest costs. It identifies vulnerability to export, exchange rate, natural disaster and primary balance shocks, and discusses contingent liabilities stress testing covering SOEs, PPPs and market shocks.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages29

Reading Time1 h 13 min

Risk Assessment

External Debt Distress Risk

Overall Debt Distress Risk

Granularity and Judgment Application

Debt Dynamics and Projection Drivers

Fiscal Consolidation Effects

Macroeconomic and Market Pressure Factors

Debt Coverage and Methodology

Perimeter of Public Debt

Definitions of External Debt

Data Coverage Limitations

Contingent Liabilities Stress Test

SOE, PPP and Extra-budgetary Unit Shocks

County Government Borrowing Constraints

Calibration and Survey Inputs

Vulnerabilities and Mitigation Considerations

Shock Sensitivities and Downside Risks

Natural Disaster Stress Implications

Adaptation, Mitigation and Green Financing Framework

Public Disc losure Authorized Pub lic Disc losure Authorized Approved by: Asad Alam and Manuela Francisco (IDA); Catherine Pattillo (IMF, AFR); Eugenio Cerutti (IMF) Prepared by the staff of the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) . | KENYA: JOINT BANK-FUND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS | | | --- | --- | | Risk of external debt distress | High | | Overall risk of debt distress | High | | Granularity in the risk rating | Sustainable | | Application of judgment | No | Kenya’s public debt is sustainable. While overall and external ratings for risk of debt distress remain high, debt dynamics are being bolstered by the fiscal consolidation under the IMF-supported program.1 High fiscal deficits in the past and pandemic-related export and output losses in 2020 had resulted in deterioration of solvency and liquidity debt indicators. Market pressures since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the monetary tightening in advanced countries have limited access to commercial borrowing. Compared to the last DSA assessment,2 the projections of debt burden metrics have been revised up, reflecting lower 2022 GDP outturn, REER depreciation in 2023:H1, increased access to program financing, recording of the SDR on lending to the government at face value, and higher projected interest expenses on loans with variable interest rates. Going forward, Kenya’s debt indicators are forecasted to improve, as the primary balance turns into a surplus reflecting the strong commitment by authorities to fiscal consolidation, albeit gradually for the external debt service-to-exports ratio. The DSA suggests that Kenya is susceptible to export, exchange rate, natural disaster and primary balance shocks; more prolonged and protracted shocks to the economy would also present downside risks to the debt outlook. The natural disaster shock illustrates the very limited scope for meeting additional financing needs in a stress scenario without jeopardizing debt sustainability, underscoring the importance of existing mitigation and adaptation strategies to curb and cushion climate risks, as well as putting in place the necessary regulatory framework to tap private sector solutions and enable access to concessional green financing. 1 The DSA analysis reflects a debt carrying capacity of Medium considering Kenya’s Composite Indicator Index of 2 .98, based on the IMF’s April 2023 World Economic Outlook and the 2021 World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), published in July 2022. 2 See IMF Country Report No. 2022/382 published in December 2022. 1. For the purposes of this analysis, the perimeter of public debt covers the debt of the central government, Social Security Fund, central bank debt taken on behalf of the government, and government guaranteed debt (Text Table 1) . Debt data include both external and domestic obligations and guarantees: • The external DSA covers the external debt of the central government and the central bank, including publicly guaranteed debt, as well as of the private sector. • The public DSA covers both external and domestic debt incurred or guaranteed by the central government. It does not cover the entire public sector, such as extra-budgetary units and county governments.3 Debt coverage excludes legacy debt of the pre-devolution county governments,4 estimated at Ksh 53.8 billion (0 .4 percent of GDP), which is included in the contingent liabilities stress scenario (see below) . • The DSA uses a currency-based definition of external debt. There is no significant difference between a currency-based and residency-based definition of external debt, as nonresidents’ direct participation in the domestic debt market is small, at below one percent of total outstanding government securities (Text Table 2) . 2. The DSA includes a combined contingent liabilities stress test aimed at capturing the public sector’s exposure to SOEs, PPPs, and a financia

FAQs

What is Kenya’s assessed risk level for debt distress in the joint DSA?

The analysis rates both external debt distress risk and the overall risk of debt distress as high, even though debt indicators are expected to improve under fiscal consolidation.

Why were debt burden metric projections revised compared with the previous DSA?

Projections were revised upward due to lower 2022 GDP outcomes, REER depreciation in 2023:H1, increased access to program financing, recording of the SDR at face value, and higher projected interest expenses on variable-rate loans.

Which shocks does the DSA identify as key vulnerabilities for Kenya’s debt outlook?

Kenya is assessed as susceptible to export shocks, exchange rate shocks, natural disaster shocks, and primary balance shocks; more persistent and prolonged shocks would further worsen the outlook.

Jul 19, 2026

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