Kenya - Country Climate and Development Report - Potential Changes in Biodiversity and Effects on Cultural Ecosystem Services

Jul 19, 2026

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This background note assesses potential changes in biodiversity and how those changes may affect cultural ecosystem services in Kenya, with a focus on nature-based tourism values. It defines scenario pathways for land cover and biodiversity status, then links habitat quality and wildlife population indicators to spatial patterns and future tourism impacts. Methods combine baseline and projected land cover layers, habitat quality indexing, wildlife status estimation, and an integrated evaluation framework to quantify tourism value changes under different futures.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages32

Reading Time1 h 21 min

Introduction and rationale

Scope and limitations

Kenya’s natural habitats and wildlife populations

Cultural ecosystem services and the importance of tourism

Linkages between ecosystem health and nature-based tourism value

Scenarios

BAU scenario

ASP scenario

Data and methods

Overview

Preparing land cover layers

Estimating biodiversity status

Estimating nature-based tourism impacts

Results

Changes in land cover and habitat quality

Changes in wildlife

Baseline value and spatial distribution of nature-based tourism

Changes in nature-based tourism value

Conclusion

References

| Authorized | | --- | | ic Disclosure | | Pub l | | sure Authorized | | Pub l ic Disclo | | thorized Potential changes in biodiversity and effects on cultural ecosystem services | | Disc losure Au Background noteforthe Kenya CCDR prepared byJaneTurpie, LukeWilsonandGwyn | | Public | | Authorized | | b l ic Disclosure | | Pu | | | | May 2023 | Table of Contents Acronyms.............................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................. iii 1. Introduction and rationale ......................................................................................... 1 1.1. Scope and limitations ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2. Kenya’s natural habitats and wildlife populations ............................................................ 1 1.3. Cultural ecosystem services and the importance of tourism ............................................3 1.4. Linkages between ecosystem health and nature-based tourism value ............................4 2. Scenarios .................................................................................................................. 6 2.1. BAU scenario...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2. ASP scenario ..................................................................................................................... 7 3. Data and methods .................................................................................................. 11 3.1. Overview ..........................................................................................................................11 3.2. Preparing land cover layers .............................................................................................11 3.2.1. Baseline 2018 land cover ......................................................................................................... 11 3.2.2. BAU 2050 land cover ................................................................................................................ 12 3.2.3. ASP 2050 land cover ................................................................................................................ 12 3.3. Estimating biodiversity status..........................................................................................13 3.3.1. Habitat quality index .................................................................................................................. 13 3.3.2. Status of wildlife populations.................................................................................................... 15 3.4. Estimating nature-based tourism impacts.......................................................................15 3.4.1. Baseline...................................................................................................................................... 15 3.4.2. Future scenarios ........................................................................................................................ 16 4. Results .................................................................................................................... 18 4.1. Changes in land cover and habitat quality ......................................................................18 4.2. Changes in wildlife ...........................................................................................................20 4.3. Baseline value and spatial distribution of nature-based tourism....................................20 4.4. Changes in nature-based tourism value............................................................

FAQs

What is the document’s main purpose for Kenya?

It evaluates potential biodiversity changes in Kenya and examines how those changes could influence cultural ecosystem services, especially the value of nature-based tourism.

Which scenarios are used to project future changes?

The analysis compares a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with an aspirational (ASP) scenario for land cover and subsequent biodiversity and tourism impacts.

How are biodiversity status and tourism impacts estimated?

The report prepares baseline and future land cover layers, uses a habitat quality index and wildlife population status indicators, and then estimates tourism impacts by combining baseline and future scenario information in an evaluation framework.

Jul 19, 2026

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