Kazakhstan Streamlined Country Diagnostic - Transitioning to a High-Income and Low-Carbon Economy - Development Context

Jul 19, 2026

Kazakhstan’s development context highlights a transition from early market reforms to a still state-influenced economy dominated by major SOE conglomerates and extensive intervention. Natural resources play a central economic role, with fossil fuels shaping power and heating while extractives drive output, revenues, and exports. The document links low export and innovation complexity with vulnerabilities to oil-price volatility and slower growth momentum amid successive shocks, policy constraints, and persistent productivity deceleration.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages13

Reading Time33 min

Development Context

Market transition reforms and state intervention

Natural resources, emissions, and energy mix

Growth slowdown, policy challenges, and middle-income trap

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Kazakhstan Streamlined Country Diagnostic: Transitioning to a High-Income and Low-Carbon Economy I. Development Context 1. Kazakhstan is situated in the heart of Central Asia, with a sparse population and abundant nonrenewable natural resources. Kazakhstan has the ninth largest territory in the world, a population just over 20 million, and one of the lowest population densities globally, averaging just 7.4 people per square kilometer. It shares borders with Russia, China, and other Central Asian economies and is the world’s largest landlocked country. Kazakhstan is part of the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), which links Chinese and European markets via Central Asia and the Caucasus. Kazakhstan has substantial non-renewable natural resources including oil, gas, uranium, coal, and gold among others. In addition, the country holds reserves of critical minerals such as copper, zinc, tungsten, aluminum, chromium, titanium, and uranium which are in demand for clean energy technologies and nuclear energy. i 2. The ﬁrst wave of market transition reforms in the 1990s, including new investments to the oil and gas industry, propelled Kazakhstan to an upper middle-income country (UMIC). After gaining independence from the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan began its market transition reforms. Substantial foreign direct investment ﬂowed to the country, particularly in the oil and gas sectors. Several reforms commenced to move Kazakhstan from a centrally planned system to a more market-oriented economy. For example, ﬁxed prices were eliminated for many goods and services, several state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public utilities were privatized, the economy opened to international trade, and strengthened the private and ﬁnancial sectors. In 2007, Kazakhstan transitioned to UMIC status, and by 2023, GNI per capita was $10,940 (Atlas method) . Today, Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia and is home to approximately 321,000 migrants from other Central Asian countries. ii 3. However, the transition to a market-based economy is an incomplete agenda. State intervention is pervasive in the economy, with activities organized in two large SOE conglomerates—Samruk Kazyna and Baiterek, and several hundred smaller SOEs at the national and municipal levels. Samruk-Kazyna, established in 2008, is responsible for several sectors including oil and gas, electricity, railways, airlines, telecommunications, and energy. Baiterek, established in 2013, aims to fulﬁll a dual mandate serving as both a holding and management company for development ﬁnance institutions of Kazakhstan and acting as a ﬁscal agent responsible for channeling government ﬁnancial assistance to individuals and businesses. The size of the SOE sector is substantial, which can disrupt the competitiveness of markets. iii Continuing with privatization and promoting competitive neutrality are among the government’s key objectives. 4. Kazakhstan is part of the top-15 global greenhouse (GHG) emitting countries on a per capita basis, with non-renewable natural resources playing an important role in the economy. Coal is estimated to account for 57 percent of total installed capacity for electricity and heating, followed by natural gas at 25 percent and large hydro at 11 percent. iv The extraction of natural resources accounts for approximately one third of national output, 25 percent of government revenues, and 50 percent of total exports.vvi Kazakhstan's heavy reliance on the extractives sector undermines the impetus to transition to a more competitive and innovative economy. Kazakhstan was ranked as the 85th most complex economy out of 133 countries in 2021, which is less complex (or diverse) than expected for its income level, and moreover is in a declining long-term trend.vii Volatile oil prices exposes the economy to signiﬁcant vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of maintaining

FAQs

为什么哈萨克斯坦的市场化转型仍被认为是不完整的？

尽管1990年代启动了市场转型改革，但国家干预仍然广泛存在，经济活动由大型SOE集团及大量中小型国企共同主导。政府也将继续推进私有化与竞争中立等改革目标。

自然资源在哈萨克斯坦经济中扮演了什么作用？

非可再生资源在经济中占据核心地位，煤炭、天然气等对发电与供热结构影响显著。资源开采贡献了约三分之一的产出、政府收入的相当比例以及出口的重要份额。

哈萨克斯坦的增长放缓主要受哪些因素影响？

在2008年金融危机后以及后续的外部冲击中，经济增长显著放慢。包括油价下跌、俄罗斯-乌克兰相关的多重危机、疫情及供应链扰动，同时较高的政策利率抑制私人部门信贷与投资活动。

Jul 19, 2026

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