Investigating Math Achievement Patterns over Time Among Ontario Elementary School Students with Different Language and Literacy Characteristics - Research findings

Oct 15, 2026

Downward trends in Ontario’s math achievement have raised concerns about effective identification of students struggling to meet math achievement standards. This study used longitudinal cohort data from provincial math assessments to model Grades 3–6 students’ achievement trajectories. Latent class analysis identified two profiles—consistent and declining achievement groups. Logistic regression showed that English Language Learners were more likely to decline in math achievement, highlighting the need for stronger instructional support for ELL students.

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CategoryResearch & Report

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Abstract

Introduction

Language and Literacy in Math Achievement

Investigating Math Achievement Patterns over Time Among Ontario Elementary School Students with Different Language and Literacy Characteristics Ellen Fesseha Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto Hanna Wickstrom Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto Eunice Eunhee Jang Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto Canadian Journal of Education / Revue canadienne de l’éducation 43:2 (2020)©2020 Canadian Society for the Study of Education/ Société canadienne pour l’étude de l’éducation [www.cje-rce.ca](www.cje-rce.ca) Abstract Downward trends in Ontario’s math achievement have raised concerns about the need for effective identification of students struggling to meet math achievement standards. This study identified latent profiles from math achievement patterns of students from Grades 3 to 6, examining how specific language and literacy characteristics predicted profile membership. Participants’ test scores were collected from longitudinal cohort data of provincial math assessments. Latent class analysis identified two achievement pattern profiles: consistent and declining achievement groups. Subsequent logistic regression analyses revealed English Language Learners’(ELL) as likelier to decline in math achievement, suggesting the need for greater instructional support for ELL students. Keywords: math achievement patterns, English Language Learners, standardized assessments, test-driven accountability, latent class analysis Résumé La tendance à la baisse des résultats en mathématiques en Ontario soulève des inquiétudes quant à la nécessité d’identifier efficacement les élèves ayant du mal à atteindre les standards de réussite en mathématiques. Cette étude identifie des profils latents, à partir de tendances de réussite en mathématiques d’étudiants de troisième à sixième année, en examinant comment des caractéristiques spécifiques de langage et d’alphabétisation prédisent l’appartenance à un profil. Les données analysées proviennent des résultats longitudinaux obtenus par les cohortes de participants aux évaluations provinciales en mathématiques. L’analyse des classes latentes a permis d’identifier deux profils de tendance de la réussite: un groupe dont les résultats sont constants et un autre dont les résultats sont en déclin. Les analyses de régression logistique ultérieures ont révélé que les apprenants de langue anglaise (ELL) sont plus susceptibles de voir leurs résultats en mathématiques diminuer, ce qui laisse présager un besoin de soutien pédagogique plus important pour ces élèves. Mots-clés : tendances de réussite en mathématiques, apprenants de langue anglaise, évaluations standardisées, responsabilité fondée sur les tests, analyse de classes latentes Canadian Journal of Education /Revue canadienne del’éducation 43:2 (2020) [www.cje-rce.ca](www.cje-rce.ca) Introduction The importance of mathematics learning in the elementary grades is widely agreed upon. Early math performance is a known predictor of later academic success and career choices (Claessens & Engel, 2013; Duncan et al., 2007; Ritchie & Bates, 2013), and the predictable nature of above-average numeracy and reading achievement toward careersin science, technology, engineering, and mathematics is well-substantiated (Holmes et al., 2018) . Globally, math achievement is measured as an indicator of adequate progress toward educational standards (Loveless, 2007) . Similarly, in some Canadian provinces, elementary grades have maintained a heightened focus on math, given what some describe as a concerning decline in students’math achievement (Education Quality and Accountability Office [EQAO], 2017a). A common and widely favoured method for collecting information regarding students’patterns of achievement, including in Canada, is high-stakes standardized assessments that are embedded in wider test-driven systems of accountability (Anderson et al., 2006) . One o

FAQs

What is the main purpose of the study?

To examine how math achievement patterns from Grades 3 to 6 develop in Ontario and how language and literacy characteristics predict students’ profile membership.

How were students grouped based on their math achievement over time?

Latent class analysis identified two achievement pattern profiles: consistent and declining achievement groups.

What did the study find about English Language Learners (ELL)?

ELL students were more likely to belong to the declining math achievement profile, suggesting a need for greater instructional support.

Oct 15, 2026

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