In-depth analysis and trends of cancer mortality in Kazakhstan - a joinpoint analysis of nationwide healthcare data 2014-2022

Sep 21, 2026

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Cancer is a leading cause of death globally and in Kazakhstan, requiring close monitoring of mortality patterns over time. This study examines cancer mortality trends in Kazakhstan from 2014 to 2022 using nationwide healthcare data. Descriptive analysis and Joinpoint regression quantify average annual percent change (AAPC) and assess mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and proportionate mortality (PM), including differences by age, sex, cancer type, and region.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages9

Reading Time23 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Introduction

Akhmedullin etal. BMC Cancer (2024) 24:1340 BMC Cancer [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-13128-2](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-13128-2) RESEARCH Open Access In-depth analysis and trends of cancer mortality in Kazakhstan: a joinpoint analysis of nationwide healthcare data 2014–2022 Ruslan Akhmedull in 1, Temirgali Aimyshev 1, Gulnur Zhakhina 1, SauranYerdessov 1, Altynay Beyembetova 1, Ayana Ablayeva 1, Aigerim Biniyazova 1, Temirlan Seyil 1, Diyora Abdukhakimova 1, Aidana Segizbayeva 1, Yuliya Semenova 1 and Abduzhappar Gaipov 1* Abstract Background Cancer remains a leading cause of death both globally and in Kazakhstan, making it crucial to track its mortality trends. This study aimed to investigate cancer mortality trends from 2014 to 2022 in Kazakhstan. Methods This study utilized data from Kazakhstan’s Unified National Electronic Health System to perform descriptive data analysis and employed Joinpoint regression models to analyze average annual percent change (AAPC) in cancerrelated mortality estimates. The authors also examined the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and proportionate mortality (PM) . Results The study analyzed 123,622 cancer-related death reports from 2014 to 2022. Major causes included trachea, bronchus, and lung cancer (16 . 01%), stomach cancer (11 .43%), and colon and rectum cancer (10 . 05%), accounting for 37.48% of all cancer-related deaths. AAPCs showed a significant increase in mortality for individuals aged 18–44 (1 . 36%; 95% CI: 0 . 05%; 2 . 71%), while those aged 45–59 and 60–74 experienced decreases of-2 . 02%(95% CI: -3 . 05%;-0. 96%) and − 2 . 10%(95% CI:-3 . 22%; -0 . 96%), respectively. PM was stable until 2019 but decreased from 2020 to 2021, while MIR increased during the same period. A significant decrease in oesophageal cancer mortality was observed in both females (-4 . 03%; 95% CI: -6 . 11%; -1 . 83%) and males (-2 .44%; 95% CI: -4 . 89%; -0 . 02%), whereas ovarian cancer mortality increased by 0 . 95%(95% CI: 0 . 03%; 1. 91%) . In males, mortality from trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers decreased by-2 . 14%(95% CI: -3 . 00%; -1 . 25%), while “other neoplasms” rose by 6 . 21%(95% CI: 1.40%; 11. 27%) . Regional analysis highlighted variability, with the Kyzylorda region showing a pronounced increase in mortality (27 . 18%; 95% CI: 14. 11%; 42 . 35%) . Conclusions Despite slight increases in MIR during the COVID-19 pandemic, overall cancer mortality trends remained stable. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions, especially for individuals aged 18–44, ovarian cancer, and “other neoplasms”. Further research is needed to explore regional mortality variations. Keywords Cancer, Neoplasms, Epidemiology, Covid-19, Mortality, Cause-specific mortality *Correspondence: Abduzhappar Gaipov [abduzhappar.gaipov@nu.edu.kz](abduzhappar.gaipov@nu.edu.kz) 1Department of Medicine, Nazarbayev University School of Medicine, Kerey and Zhanibek Street 5/1, Astana city Z05P3Y4 010000, Republic of Kazakhstan © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. T

FAQs

What data source and analysis methods were used to study cancer mortality trends?

The study used data from Kazakhstan’s Unified National Electronic Health System. It applied descriptive analysis and Joinpoint regression models to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC), along with MIR and proportionate mortality (PM).

What overall pattern did the study find in cancer mortality trends from 2014 to 2022?

Overall cancer mortality trends remained stable despite slight increases in MIR during the COVID-19 pandemic period. PM was stable until 2019, then decreased from 2020 to 2021 while MIR increased.

Which age and cancer subgroups showed significant changes in mortality?

Mortality increased significantly for individuals aged 18–44, while decreases were observed for ages 45–59 and 60–74. Esophageal cancer mortality decreased in both females and males, ovarian cancer mortality increased, and males also showed shifts in trachea/bronchus/lung cancers versus “other neoplasms”.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Skyler