International Monetary Fund发展委员会：管理总裁声明（2023年10月12日）

Jul 19, 2026

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Statement by the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, for the Development Committee’s one hundred and eighth meeting on October 12, 2023. The statement assesses a resilient but slow, uneven global recovery, moderating risks that still tilt downward, and inflation declining while core pressures persist. It highlights weakening growth momentum in EMDEs and low-income countries, difficulties in achieving the 2030 SDGs, and policy priorities including macrostructural reforms, fiscal normalization, price stability, and protection for the vulnerable. Multilateral cooperation is emphasized to address geoeconomic fragmentation and other headwinds.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages7

Reading Time18 min

Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement

Economic Outlook and Risks

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE (Joint Ministerial Committee of the Boards of Governors ofthe Bank and the Fundon the Transfer of Real Resources to Developing Countries) DC/S/2023-0045 October 12, 2023 STATEMENT BY THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Attached for information for the Members of the Development Committee is a Statement from the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva for the Committee’s one hundred and eighth meeting to be held on October 12, 2023. DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE: THE MANAGING DIRECTOR'S WRITTEN STATEMENT October 2023 The global economy has shown resilience, but the recovery is slow and uneven. Risks have moderated in recent months but remain tilted to the downside. Headline inflation is about half of its 2022 peak but the decline in core inflation is more gradual. Growth momentum across most low-income and emerging market countries is weakening and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is becoming increasingly challenging. While restoring price stability, normalizing fiscal policy, and protecting the vulnerable remain near-term policy priorities, policymakers should actively pursue policies that can support sustained growth—including macrostructural reforms and green transition. Multilateral cooperation is critical to address the challenges that hold back global recovery and shadow future prosperity, including risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS The global economy showed some resilience in 2023 but several forces are holding back a stronger recovery and medium-term prospects are lackluster. Growth remains slow in advanced economies. The global economy began showing resilience in 2023 as headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic receded, supply chains normalized, and financial sector turbulence was contained. As such, global growth for 2023 is projected at 3.0 percent—0.2 percentage point higher than projected in April 2023. Nevertheless, several forces are holding back a stronger recovery. Savings built-up during the pandemic, which supported consumption, are running out, the postpandemic services rebound has matured, and manufacturing activity has weakened. Concurrently, the war in Ukraine, central banks’ rate hikes, limited fiscal space including high debt levels, geoeconomic fragmentation, and more frequent extreme weather events also weigh on the outlook. Overall, global growth is forecast to be at 2.9 percent in 2024 and 3.1 percent in the medium term, the lowest level in decades. Owing to the containment of financial sector turbulence, the growth of advanced economies (AEs) in 2023 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 1.5 percent. This positive news is offset by persistent weakness in manufacturing, stillhigh inflation, and the dissipation of the effects from past stimulus. Growth in 2024 is thus projected to remain at 1.4 percent, which is substantially below its 2022 level of 2.6 percent. Stable EMDE growth conceals regional variations. Dimming prospects for income convergence inline with mediocre medium-term growth projections. Inflation is declining but the fight is not over yet. Risks have moderated in recent months but remain tilted to the downside. Growth for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is projected to be broadly stable at 4.0 percent for 2023 and 2024. Regional divergences, however, are significant, reflecting countries’ trade composition and ability to handle energy and food price shocks. Growth in emerging and developing Europe is expected to strengthen over the next two years as economies adapt to the war in Ukraine. By contrast, emerging and developing Asia countries will be particularly impacted by the slowing Chinese economy. A mixture of commodity market developments, worsening weather shocks, rising domestic security incidences, as well

FAQs

What is the main message about the global economy in the statement?

The global economy shows resilience, but the recovery remains slow and uneven. Growth is weak in advanced economies and weakening momentum is evident in many EMDEs and low-income countries.

How does the statement describe inflation trends and the risk outlook?

Headline inflation is declining compared with the 2022 peak, but progress on core inflation is more gradual. Risks have moderated in recent months yet remain tilted to the downside.

Which policy priorities are emphasized for supporting sustained growth?

The statement stresses restoring price stability, normalizing fiscal policy, and protecting the vulnerable. It also calls for policies that support sustained growth, including macrostructural reforms and the green transition, alongside multilateral cooperation.

Jul 19, 2026

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