If the Yedoma thaws, will we notice? Quantifying detection limits of top-down methane monitoring infrastructures - Manuscript version 3

Aug 25, 2026

Uploaded by Rhys

Large quantities of carbon are stored in Yedoma permafrost, and warming can rapidly degrade its ice-rich soils, potentially releasing substantial carbon to the atmosphere. Because 40% to 70% of the radiative forcing from this release is expected to be methane (CH4), the study evaluates three top-down monitoring platforms—tall towers, TROPOMI, and MERLIN—for detecting changes in CH4 emissions under enhanced thaw scenarios. Simulated environments generate synthetic measurements with realistic errors, then assess detection limits across aggregation periods while accounting for transport uncertainties and tower error impacts.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages27

Reading Time1 h 8 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Introduction

Tall towers

If the Yedoma thaws, will we notice? Quantifying detection limits of top-down methane monitoring infrastructures Martijn M. T. A. Pallandt 1,2,3 , Abhishek Chatterjee2,4, Lesley E. Ott2, Julia Marshall5, Mathias Göckede 1 1Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, 07745, GER 5 2NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA 3Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 114 19 Stockholm, SWE 4NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91011, USA 5Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234, Germany 10 Correspondence to: Martijn Pallandt ([Martijn.Pallandt@natgeo.su.se](Martijn.Pallandt@natgeo.su.se)) Abstract Large quantities of carbon are stored in Yedoma permafrost. When temperatures rise, its high ice content is a catalyst for rapid degradation, which in turn may cause the release of large quantities of carbon. 40% to 70% of the radiative forcing from this release is expected to be in the form of CH4. In this observing system simulation experiment, we examined the capabilities of 15 three atmospheric GHG monitoring platforms i.e. tall towers, and the TROPOMI and MERLIN satellite instruments, to detect changes in CH4 release from increased Yedoma thaw. A set of environments are simulated with the GEOS-5 model: one representing a 'natural' emission case as the reference, a second featuring enhanced CH4 release from Yedoma soils. From within these modelled environments, synthetic measurements are generated following best in situ practices and realistic error characterizations. 20 For the satellites we find the lowest detection limits when aggregating measurements over a 112 day period, at Yedoma fluxes of 144% to 367% of current conditions. These factors are up to 1.2 times higher when taking transport modelling uncertainties into account. The tall tower network shows a wide range of detection lower limits, the lowest at only 107% of current fluxes, but has considerably higher lower detection limits when factoring in transport modelling errors. Overall, the individual systems appear to lack the ability to detect and attribute small changes in Yedoma CH4 fluxes, and would either need to be used in 25 combination or require a considerable time to detect changes under higher emission scenarios. 1 Introduction The Northern high latitudes are seeing rapid changes in environmental conditions as a result of climate change (Serreze and Barry, 2011; IPCC, 2014; Meredith et al., 2019) . These changes can have far-reaching consequences since permafrost soils contain large stocks of carbon, almost twice that of the atmosphere (Yu, 2012; Schuur et al., 2013; Hugelius et al., 2014; 30 Strauss et al., 2017; Nichols and Peteet, 2019; Mishra et al., 2021) . This carbon may be released to the atmosphere when permafrost thaws (Hugelius et al., 2020; Schuur et al., 2015, 2008; Serreze and Barry, 2011) . The form in which this carbon is released (e.g. as carbon dioxide (CO2) or methane (CH4)) has a large influence on its climate impact (Schneider von Deimlinget al., 2015; Walter Anthony et al., 2018) , with 40-70% percent of the radiative forcing from permafrost thaw projected to originate from CH4 emissions. To understand how the Arctic will be affected and to properly capture any changes, continuous 35 monitoring is essential; however, the monitoring capacity for pan-Arctic methane fluxes is still limited (O’Connor et al., 2010; Pallandt et al., 2021; Peltola et al., 2019; Pirk et al., 2016; Wille et al., 2008; Wittig et al., 2023; Xu et al., 2016) , and likely not sufficient to detect abrupt changes in methane emissions at an adequate resolution and precision to inform adaptation measures designed by policymakers. There are many methods to directly monitor the methane exchange processes between the surface an

FAQs

What climate process does the study focus on?

The study focuses on methane (CH4) release triggered by Yedoma permafrost thaw, where high ice content can accelerate degradation and carbon release.

Which monitoring systems are evaluated?

The research evaluates tall towers, and the satellite instruments TROPOMI and MERLIN, using an observing system simulation framework.

Why might these systems struggle to detect small methane changes?

The results indicate limited ability to detect and attribute small changes in Yedoma CH4 fluxes, likely requiring combined use of systems or longer observation times under higher emission scenarios.

Aug 25, 2026

Uploaded by Rhys