IDA19 - Update on the Deepening Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in IDA Countries - October 6, 2020

Jul 19, 2026

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The update examines how the COVID-19 crisis is intensifying setbacks in International Development Association (IDA) countries, threatening progress toward the World Bank Group Twin Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals. It highlights a steep growth decline since the 1960s, lasting impacts through reduced investment and productivity, weaker trade and supply linkages, and erosion of human and natural capital. Poverty is rising for the first time in over 20 years, with maternal and child mortality increasing, school closures worsening learning poverty, and intensified vulnerabilities among the poorest, fragile, conflict-affected states, and small states.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages22

Reading Time55 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Implications for Growth

Implications for People

Implications for Resilience

Conclusion

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized IDA19 Update on the Deepening Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in IDA Countries Development Finance, Corporate IDA & IBRD (DFCII) October 6, 2020 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Fiscal Year (FY) = July 1 to June 30 COP26 DPT DRC EMDE FDI FEWSNET GDP GEPHCI HIV IBRD IDA FCS IDA UN Climate Change Conference Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus Democratic Republic of Congo Emerging Market and Developing Economies Foreign Direct Investment Famine Early Warning Systems Network Gross Domestic Product Global Economic Prospects Human Capital Index Human Immunodeficiency Virus International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Fragile and Conflict-affected IDA Countries International Development Association IFC ILO IMF ITCLMICs MICs MSME ODA SDG SSA TVET UNESCO WBG International Finance Corporation International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Trade Center Lower Middle-income Countries Middle Income Countries Micro, Small and Mediumsized Enterprises Overseas Development Assistance Sustainable Development Goals sub-Saharan Africa Technical and Vocational Education and Training United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization World Bank Group Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... i A. Implications for Growth .................................................................................................... 1 B. Implications for People ...................................................................................................... 8 C. Implications for Resilience .............................................................................................. 16 D. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 18 Table of Figures and Boxes Figures Figure 1. GDP per Capita in IDA Countries ................................................................................... 1 Figure 2. GDP Per Capita in IDA FCS Over Time......................................................................... 2 Figure 3. Revenue Shortfalls........................................................................................................... 2 Figure 4. Number of IDA Countries in Debt Distress, 2015 to 2020 ............................................. 3 Figure 5. Public Debt-to-GDP Ratios in IDA Countries ................................................................ 3 Figure 6. Cumulative Slowdowns in Potential Output in IDA Countries After Recessions .......... 4 Figure 7. Labor Productivity in IDA Countries Following Biological Disasters ........................... 5 Figure 8. COVID-19 Positive Rates ............................................................................................... 8 Figure 9. Number of Extreme Poor in IDA FCS and in all IDA Countries.................................... 9 Figure 10. Children under Five Mortality Rate in IDA Countries................................................ 12 Figure 11. Increased Learning Poverty in IDA Countries ............................................................ 14 Figure 12. Fragility-related Events in IDA FCS ........................................................................... 17 Boxes Box 1. Spotlight on Small States .................................................................................................... 6 -i Executive Summary i. The world’s poorest countries are quickly moving backwards on their path towards achieving the World Bank Group (WBG) Twin Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The pandemic continues to escalate in International Development Association (IDA) countries, likely at faster rates than reported. O

FAQs

What are the main ways the COVID-19 crisis is affecting IDA countries?

It is accelerating poverty increases, deepening learning poverty through school closures, and driving a sharp decline in growth that reduces investment and productivity. The crisis also erodes human and natural capital and worsens vulnerabilities among the poorest and most exposed groups.

How does the crisis affect different groups within IDA countries?

The poorest segments experience disproportionate impacts, with the crisis amplifying existing income inequalities. Gender equality gains face elevated risk, and fragility drivers intensify in both fragile and conflict-affected IDA countries and non-FCS areas.

Why are risks for IDA countries considered heavily tilted to the downside?

Fiscal space was already constrained and debt vulnerabilities were already high before the pandemic. As revenues fall beyond output declines and mitigation capacity is limited, development gains from recent replenishments erode, and the situation is expected to worsen further.

Jul 19, 2026

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