ICE Activity in Trump 2.0 Is Increasing Employment and Decreasing Full-Time School Enrollment for Teens in Mixed-Status Families

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Jake

The study examines whether heightened immigration enforcement under the second Trump Administration affects U.S.-born teenagers with undocumented parents, focusing on changes in employment and full-time school enrollment in 2025 versus 2024. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, researchers estimate increases in teen employment and decreases in full-time enrollment concentrated among households with likely undocumented mothers, while placebo samples show no comparable shifts. Findings link enforcement pressures to harm and potentially worse long-term life outcomes.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

AccessFree to download

Key Findings

Research Methods

Sample Construction

Data and Measures

Results

Change in Teens’ Employment Rate

Change in Teens’ Full-Time School Enrollment

Discussion

ICE Activity in Trump 2 . 0 is Increasing Employment and Decreasing Full-Time School Enrollment for Teens in Mixed-Status Families By Chloe N. East, Associate Professor of Economics at University of Colorado Boulder, and Elizabeth Cox, Professional Research Assistant at University of Colorado Boulder The second Trump Administration has promised, and is on their way to delivering, immigration enforcement activity at levels not seen before in modern U.S. history. Evidence points to heightened immigration enforcement in 2025 not only impacting those arrested, detained, and deported, but their families—including their children—as well. In this piece, we explore whether heightened immigration enforcement under the second Trump Administration is affecting U.S.-born teenagers with undocumented parents, including whether these teens increased their employment and decreased their school enrollment in 2025 compared to 2024. We specifically examine this because the arrest, detention, and deportation of a parent or other family member reduces family income; and even if a family member is not detained or deported, undocumented adults may work less due to chilling effects or a reduction in their legal ability to work. Thus, U.S.-born teenagers may need to work to help their family make up for lost income. To analyze the impacts in Trump 2.0, we used Current Population Survey (CPS) data from 2024 and 2025. We calculated employment and full-time school enrollment (including high school and college enrollment) rates and examined changes in these outcomes over time. Our Key Findings: U.S.-born teenagers in mixed-status households worked at much higher rates in the first 11 months of 2025 than they did in the same months of 2024 . Compared to 2024, 25,000 more teens in mixed-status households worked each month in 2025. U.S.-born teenagers in mixed-status households were also enrolled in high school and college at lower rates in 2025 than in 2024. We estimate that in 2025 there were approximately 20,000 fewer teens in mixed-status households enrolled in school full-time compared to 2024. These changes are not seen for U.S.-born teenagers with U.S.-born parents, or foreign-born parents with likely legal status. Research shows that graduating high school is a key determinant of later life outcomes, and that high school graduates earn more and are healthier later in life. We conclude that heightened immigration enforcement is harming U.S.-born teenagers in mixed-status households today, and setting them up for worse long-term outcomes. February 2026 1 Research Methods We used three main samples in this analysis focusing on U.S.-born teenagers, where we define teenagers to be between the ages of 15-19 . This is because the CPS begins asking people about their work behavior at age 15, and, after age 19 teenagers may live on their own, so we would not have information about their parents. The samples include: 1. U.S.-born teens with U.S.-born parents 2. U.S.-born teens with foreign-born parents 3. U.S.-born teens with likely undocumented mothers We focused on mothers’ information instead of fathers, since fathers are more likely to be missing from the household due to evidence demonstrating that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) primarily targets and arrests men. We considered samples 1 and 2 to be placebo samples—that is, teenagers who were likely not directly affected by changes in immigration enforcement. We defined mothers in sample 3 as likely undocumented if they are Hispanic, have at most a high school degree, and report being a non-citizen. We used these demographics because the data does not directly identify whether someone is undocumented. Sample 3 is where we anticipated we would observe any effects. We examined the employment rates and full-time school enrollment rates among each of these samples in January 2025-November 2025 compared to January 2024-November 2024. We omitted October from bo

FAQs

Which teenagers show the strongest changes in 2025 compared with 2024?

U.S.-born teenagers in mixed-status households with likely undocumented mothers show higher employment and lower full-time school enrollment in 2025 versus 2024.

What data and time period were used to analyze employment and enrollment changes?

The analysis uses Current Population Survey (CPS) data for 2024 and 2025, comparing January–November of each year and omitting October in both years where applicable due to missing 2025 October data.

Do similar effects appear for teenagers with likely legal status or U.S.-born parents?

No. The study reports that the observed changes are not seen for U.S.-born teenagers with U.S.-born parents or for foreign-born parents with likely legal status.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by Jake