Human-induced temperature rise is driving Africa towards drought-prone climatic conditions

Sep 30, 2026

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This study examines how human activities shape climate forcings and affect surface air temperature (SAT) and the intensification of drought-prone conditions across Africa. Using observations, model experiments, and Regularized Optimal Fingerprinting detection, results show human-induced warming of 0.8–1.06°C above pre-industrial levels, driven mainly by greenhouse gases and land-use changes, while anthropogenic aerosols produce cooling that does not fully counteract warming. SAT anomalies during the industrial era contribute to stronger drought risk, with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 implying ~2°C and ~5°C warming by century’s end.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages13

Reading Time33 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Human influences on SAT and drought risk

Methods and detection approach

Results: contributions to temperature and drought-prone conditions

Future projections and mitigation implications

[www. nature.com/scientificreports](www. nature.com/scientificreports) OPEN Human-induced temperature rise is driving Africa towards droughtprone climatic conditions Basudev Swain1,2􀀍, Marco Vountas2, Rui Song1, Aishwarya Singh3, Vittal Hari4, Md Saquib Saharwardi5, Akshaya Nikumbh6, Adrien Deroubaix7, Pritanjali Shende8, Luca Lelli9, Richard Alawode10 & Sachin S. Gunthe11 This study focuses on the role of human activities in shaping climate forcings and their impact on surface air temperature (SAT) and drought intensification over Africa, emphasizing the human contributions to these phenomena. Through the analysis of observations, various model experiments, and Regularized Optimal Fingerprinting detection technique, our findings indicate that humaninduced factors have contributed to an increase in surface air temperatures ranging from 0.8 to 1.06◦C above pre-industrial benchmarks. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emerge as the primary driver of this rise (0.47 to 0 .92◦C), followed by land use (LU) changes (0.47 to 0 .63◦C) . In contrast, anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) exert a cooling effect (-1.82 to −1 .36◦C) on SAT. The analysis reveals that SAT anomalies, particularly during the industrial period, have significantly contributed to the intensification of drought-prone climatic conditions. During the pre-industrial period, the absence of anthropogenic warming kept SAT stable, resulting in mildly wet conditions (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)=0.54) . However, in the industrial period, the sharp rise in SAT due to GHG and LU forcings led towards significantly drought-prone climatic conditions (SPEI=-0.73), while the cooling effect of Aaer was insufficient to offset the warming trend. Estimates based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 suggest that the SAT over Africa could rise by around 2◦C and 5◦C, respectively, by the end of the century, highlighting the significant influence of human-driven factors in driving temperature rise. Strategic oversight of GHG emissions, LU changes, and aerosol concentrations in Africa offers the possibility potential to mitigate further warming and consequent drought intensification in this region. The rise in surface air temperature (SAT) over Africa in recent decades has become increasingly pronounced1,2, leading to more frequent droughts3,4, which have a range of impacts including altered rainfall patterns5, intensified heat waves6, threatened agricultural productivity7, and amplified food and water insecurity among vulnerable populations7. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated efforts at local, national, and international levels, prioritizing the understanding and mitigation of both natural and anthropogenic factors contributing to rising SAT. Such efforts are essential to ensure a more sustainable and resilient future for Africa, particularly facing increasingly frequent drought conditions. Different areas experience unique temperature changes compared to the worldwide mean8, and local warming is driven by various human-induced factors specific to those regions9. Thus, comprehending the role of human activity in driving SAT and its causal link to rising drought conditions in Africa is crucial for several reasons. Most studies on anthropogenic influences on SAT have focused on the Global North9–17, leaving Africa one of the most climate vulnerable regions understudied in terms of the contribution of human factors like greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes, and aerosols to SAT increases and subsequent drought intensification. Africa’s 1Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. 2Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany. 3School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States. 4Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (ISM) Dhanbad, Dhanbad, I

FAQs

What is the main purpose of the study?

To isolate human influences on surface air temperature over Africa and evaluate how those influences contribute to increasing drought risk.

Which human factors are identified as primary drivers of SAT rise?

Greenhouse gases and land-use changes are the primary drivers of the observed SAT increase, while anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling effect that is insufficient to offset warming.

How do the authors describe the role of the industrial period in drought intensification?

They report that SAT anomalies during the industrial period significantly intensify drought-prone climatic conditions, shifting conditions from mildly wet in the pre-industrial period to much drier conditions in the industrial period.

Sep 30, 2026

Upload by Miles