How to be a Sophisticated Poll Watcher During the 1984 Presidential Campaign

Sep 29, 2026

Guidance on interpreting and evaluating presidential polls during the 1984 U.S. election campaign. The text questions whether polls can be trusted and explains why different surveys may diverge, addressing public understanding and potential campaign impact. It highlights Mervin Field’s perspective that many polls mislead by analyzing results incorrectly. The document also provides event and speaker context alongside study section and upcoming program references.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryExam

FormatPDF

Pages9

Reading Time23 min

AccessFree to download

How to be a Sophisticated Poll Watcher During the 1984 Presidential Campaign

The Economy: Where Are We Headed?

The Boom Will Continue

Commonwealth

Study Section Schedule

Mervin D.Field Chairman,Field Research GroupFounder,the California Poll How to be aSophisticated PollWatcher Duringthe 1984PresidentialCampaign Noon,Friday Ralston Room,Sberaton Palace Hotel Presidential polls have become an inte-gral part of the American political process.Candidates,networks,newsweeklies,andpolitical parties provide week-to-week anal-yses of "how the election would turn outtoday,"like an inning-to-inning summaryof our national pastime. However,can these polls be trusted?Ifthey are accurate,why do they vary sowidely?Does the public really understandthe differences between polls?Exactly whateffect do they have on the course of a cam-paign and on the outcome of an election? Mervin Field,California's best-knownand most widely respected pollster,believesmost presidential polls mislead the publicby incorrectly analyzing the results.Field,founder of the California Poll,has sometips on understanding and analyzing thepolls for the upcoming election,and how todetermine if a particular survey is valid. Tickets—$13 for members,$16 forguests.Tickets should be picked up inadvance.See back page for advance ticketinformation. INSIDE: Milton Friedman Says Boom Will Continue……265-269 The Democrats'Strongest Case…… …269-271 # Commonwealth The Economy:Where Are WeHeaded? Dr.Milton Friedman Author and EconomistSenior Research Fellow,HooverInstitution F R I D AY JU L Y 27 ONLY ONE four-letter word fully de-scribes the state of the economy today:Boom.The rate of real growth is higherthan anyone anticipated at this stage,andthe rate of inflation is lower than almostanyone anticipated. There is no mystery about why theeconomy has experienced the rate of growthin dollar income —what economists andstatisticians call the nominal gross nationalproduct—that it has.The nominal grossnational product has been growing sincethe fourth quarter of 1982 at an annualrate of about 11 percent.This reflects priormonetary growth.Generally speaking,thenumber of dollars that everyone in thecountry spends goes up or down as thequantity of money in existence goes up ordown. Over the past 20 years or so,totalspending in the economy has tended togrow faster than the quantity of money—roughly 3.5 percent faster.So it's not sur-prising that total spending has been goingup.What is surprising and unexpected ishow much of that spending has taken theform of increased output and employment,and how little has taken the form of in-creased inflation.Over the last three quar-ters inflation has averaged about 3.7percent,whereas total output—the pro-duction of real goods and services—hasbeen going up at about 7.5 percent.Thatis a very good rate. continued on page 266 A U G U S T 1 4 In San Jose The Honorable Vernon A.Walters U.S.Ambassador-at-LargeFormer Deputy Director,CentralIntelligence Agency Central America:The Purpose of U.S.Policy Noon,TuesdayRed Lion Inn2050 Gateuay Place,San Jose Recent events in Latin America,particu-larly in EI Salvador and Nicaragua,havenot made things easy for U.S.policy mak-ers.Ambassador-at-Large Vernon A.Wal-ters went to EI Salvador at the end of Mayto persuade Roberto D'Aubuisson,the de-feated rightist presidential candidate,tohalt his attacks on President-Elect Jose Na-poleón Duarte which had threatened todestabilize the democratically-electedgovernment. Can the United States nurture a viabledemocracy in EI SalvadorAmbassador Wal-ters,a retired Army general,will give usan in-depth view of U.S.policy in CentralAmerica.He was nominated by PresidentReagan and sworn in as Ambassador-at-Large in July 1981.Since then he has rep-resented the administration on numerousforeign missions with the primary task oftrouble shooting and strengthening rela-tions between the United States and othernations. Tickets—$14 for members,$16 forguests.Tickets should be picked up inadvance.See back page for advance ticketinformation. ## STUDY SECTION SCHEDULE: August 13—August 28…… …267-

FAQs

Why might presidential polls vary so widely?

The text raises the concern that polls can be untrustworthy and vary, implying differences in how results are analyzed and interpreted.

What does Mervin Field believe about many presidential polls?

Mervin Field believes most presidential polls mislead the public by incorrectly analyzing poll results.

How does the document describe economic growth and inflation during the period discussed?

It characterizes real economic growth as strong while inflation is described as lower than expected, citing higher output and employment relative to inflation.

Sep 29, 2026

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