High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion - Examining Assumptions About Consistency Across High Schools

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Ben

High school grade point averages (HSGPAs) and standardized test scores such as ACT results are often treated as inconsistent versus comparable measures of college readiness across schools. This study evaluates those claims by analyzing variation across high schools in both HSGPAs and ACT scores as predictors of college graduation. Students with identical HSGPAs or identical ACT scores graduate at widely different rates depending on school attended. However, HSGPAs show a strong, consistent relationship, while ACT effects are weaker and more school-dependent.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

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Pages14

Reading Time35 min

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High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion

Variability of Academic Readiness Indicators Across High Schools

Prior Literature on Reliability of Course Grades and Validity of Tests

Grades Across Schools: Noncomparable Criteria and Teacher Judgment

FEATURE ARTICLES High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion: Examining Assumptions About Consistency Across High Schools Elaine M. Allensworth1 and Kallie Clark1 High school GPAs (HSGPAs) are often perceived to represent inconsistent levels of readiness for college across high schools, whereas test scores (e.g. , ACT scores) are seen as comparable. This study tests those assumptions, examining variation across high schools of both HSGPAs and ACT scores as measures of academic readiness for college. We found students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate at very different rates based on which high school they attended. Yet, the relationship of HSGPAs with college graduation is strong and consistent and larger than school effects. In contrast, the relationship of ACT scores with college graduation is weak and smaller than high school effects, and the slope of the relationship varies by high school. Keywords: achievement; hierarchical linear modeling; high schools; indicators/information services; postsecondary education H igh school course grades are critical indicators of academic performance for students, educators, and institutions of higher education. Yet, standardized test scores are often seen as more reliable and objective indicators of academic preparation than students’ grades because all students are judged based on the same tasks under the same conditions. All states use standardized tests to judge students’ progress toward college readiness goals, with 45 states using ACT or SAT scores (Nayar, 2015) . The use of standardized test scores to monitor students’ college readiness is recommended clearly in the What Works Clearinghouse practice guide on how to prepare students for college, whereas HSGPAs are discussed as one piece of performance data to consider, along with curriculum and assessments (Tierney et al., 2009) . A key assumption behind the emphasis on test scores in policy and practice is that college entrance exams are strong and consistent measures of readiness. Yet, the emphasis on test scores over grades in policy and practice recommendations stands in contrast to research showing high school grade point averages (HSGPAs) are stronger predictors than test scores of college outcomes (Bowen et al., 2009; Geiser & Santelices, 2007; Hiss & Franks, 2014; Kobrin et al., 2008) . 198 EDUCATIONAL RESEARCHER In this study, we directly addressed questions about the variability in HSGPAs across high schools as predictors of college readiness, examining whether students with the same HSGPAs are systematically more likely to graduate college if they came from particular high schools and whether the slope of the relationship differs by high school. We then conducted the same tests with ACT scores; they are generally assumed to be equivalent, but we are not aware of any published evidence that this is the case. We also discerned the extent to which there are highschool effects on college graduation that are not captured in either students’ HSGPAs or ACT scores. Prior Literature on the Reliability of Course Grades Across Schools and Validity of Tests Numerous publications give the impression that course grades are not reliable measures of achievement in comparison with test scores. For example, the introduction of a new book on testing and college admissions states: 1University of Chicago, Chicago, IL | Educational Researcher, Vol. 49 No. 3, pp. 198–211 DOI: 10.3102/0013189X20902110 | | | --- | --- | | Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)[ ](sagepub.com/journals-permissions)© 2020 AERA. [http://er.aera.net](http://er.aera.net) | | Proponents assert that standardized admissions tests provide a neutral yardstick to assess the performance and promise ofstudents from secondary schools whose course offerings differ widely in variety and rigor. This is a particularly salient point in an era of widespread

FAQs

How does the study assess whether HSGPAs represent inconsistent readiness across high schools?

It tests whether students with the same HSGPA graduate at different rates depending on which high school they attended, treating HSGPAs as measures of readiness for college completion.

Are ACT scores equally consistent predictors across high schools according to the findings?

No. The study finds ACT-to-graduation relationships are weak and smaller than school effects, and the slope varies by high school.

Why might course grades and tests differ as measures of readiness across schools?

The document explains that grades may reflect varied teacher-developed criteria, judgments, and curricula, while standardized tests assess a narrower set of skills under timed conditions.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Ben