High School Equivalency Credentialing and Post-Secondary Success - Pre-Registered Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the GED Test

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Ezra

The study evaluates how earning a high school equivalency (HSE) credential—most often via the GED test—and receiving GED College Ready designations affect later college enrollment, persistence, and completion. Using representative data from over 100,000 GED test-takers across 45 U.S. states (2014–2023) and linking test scores and survey responses to college records, the analysis combines descriptive comparisons with a regression discontinuity causal design around passing and designation cutoffs. Findings indicate modern GED graduates, especially higher-scoring or education-goal motivated students, persist and complete college at higher rates than earlier cohorts, while barely passing or narrowly qualifying has limited long-term completion impact.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages5

Reading Time13 min

AccessFree to download

THE MODERN GED TEST

STUDY AND METHODS

Descriptive methods

Causal methods

KEY FINDINGS

Descriptive findings

High School Equivalency Credentialing and Post-Secondary Success: Pre-Registered Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the GED® Test Blake H. Heller Nearly 10% of U.S. adults lack a high school diploma, limiting access to manyjobs and postsecondary opportunities. For these individuals, high school equivalency (HSE) credentials, most commonly earned through the GED® test, serve as a primary “second-chance” pathway.1 However, most national evidence on the GED test’s educational value comes from cohorts in the 1980s–2000s, before test revisions in 2014 and 2016 raised academic standards and introduced “College Ready” designations intended to signal preparedness for college coursework. In light of these changes and substantial increases in both college enrollment rates and the share of jobs requiring postsecondary training, this study uses current, representative data to examine “How, and for whom does earning an HSE credential or a GED College Ready designation improve college enrollment, persistence, and completion?” The bottom line: Modern GED graduates, especially those who are higher-scoring or motivated by educational goals, persist and complete college at higher rates than past cohorts. However, causal evidence suggests that barely passing the GED test or narrowly earning a GED College Ready designation has little impact on long-term college completion. THE MODERN GED TEST The GED test is the most common High School Equivalency (HSE) exam in the U.S., designed for people who did not graduate from high school but want a credential recognized as equivalent to a highschool diploma. The GED test is made up of four subject tests (Mathematical Reasoning, Reasoning Through Language Arts, Science, and Social Studies), and students must score at least 145 on each test to pass. The study focuses on three key GED performance designations, which were introduced in 2016 to better align the GED test with college and career readiness standards and to signal college readiness beyond just passing the test. These designations are: 1 GED® is a registered trademark of the American Council on Education (ACE) and administered exclusively by GED Testing Service LLC under license. This material is not endorsed or approved by ACE or GED Testing Service. [edworkingpapers.com | 1](edworkingpapers.com | 1) | | GED Passing Threshold | GED College Ready (CR) Designation | GED College Ready + Credit (CR+C) Designation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Score Required | 145 or higher on each of the four subject tests | 165–174 on a subject test | 175 or higher on a subject test | | What it Means | The tester has demonstrated high-school level proficiency | The tester is considered
“college ready” in that subject | The tester may qualify for college credit in that subject | | Outcome | This is the baseline requirement to earn a state high school equivalency credential or diploma via the GED test. | Recommendation that colleges waive placement tests or remedial coursework in a subject for students who meet or exceed this score. | Some colleges may grant 1–3 credits per subject to students who meet or exceed this score. | STUDY AND METHODS Descriptive methods: This study uses a representative sample of over 100,000 GED test-takers in 45 U.S. states between 2014 and 2023. The researcher linked test scores and survey responses to college enrollment and completion records to track outcomes such as college enrollment, persistence, and graduation over time. The study calculated descriptive statistics such as enrollment within one year, six-year completion, and conditional completion among enrollees and compared these to historical cohorts from the early 2000sand 1990s. Causal methods: To answer the question “Does earning passing the GED test (or earning a GED CR designation) itselfopen doors to college, beyond what a student’s test score or skills already indicate?” requires causal methods, and the author uses a regression discontinuity (RD) desi

FAQs

What research question guides the study on HSE and the GED test?

How and for whom earning an HSE credential or a GED College Ready designation improves college enrollment, persistence, and completion.

How does the study estimate causal effects of the GED credential or designations?

It uses a regression discontinuity (RD) design that compares students just above and just below score thresholds for passing or a College Ready designation in a subject.

What do the key findings say about college outcomes for modern GED graduates?

Modern GED graduates persist and complete college at higher rates than past cohorts, particularly those who score higher or are motivated by educational goals; barely passing or narrowly qualifying shows little impact on long-term completion.

Sep 14, 2026

Uploaded by Ezra