Groundswell - Acting on Internal Climate Migration - Policy Note 5 - Internal Climate Migration in East Asia and the Pacific

Jul 19, 2026

Climate change is emerging as a powerful driver of mobility, with Groundswell Part II projecting that by 2050, just over 216 million people could be forced to move within their own countries without concrete climate and development action. In East Asia and the Pacific, internal climate migrants could reach up to 48.4 million. The note explains where migrants are likely to move from less viable areas, why the poorest and most vulnerable face the greatest impacts, and how policy decisions can shape resilient, dignified outcomes through adaptation and investment.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages10

Reading Time25 min

Policy note overview

Climate change, migration, and development context

Objectives and modeling scenarios

Projected scale in East Asia and the Pacific

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disc losure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized GROUNDSWELL Acting on Internal Climate Migration POLICY NOTE \#5 Internal Climate Migration in East Asia and the Pacific Climate change is emerging as a potent driver of mobility. The report Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration (2021) projects that, by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, just over 216 million people—or around three percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, North Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia—could be forced to move within their own countries due to the slow-onset impacts of climate change. In East Asia and the Pacific,“internal climate migrants” could number as many as 48.4 million, representing up to 2.5 percent of the region’s total population. Climate migrants will move from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climatesensitive sectors and for the adequacy of urban infrastructure and social support systems in both rural and urban areas. While some climate migration cannot be avoided due to the lock-in of climate effects of past emissions, the report results also indicate that future trajectories of climate migration are not set in stone. Climate migration in East Asia and Pacific can have substantial development implications, and the stakes are high. Achieving a resilient society—where people can either adapt in place and thrive or migrate with dignity toward areas of higher opportunity—is an important part of meeting national development goals. Policy decisions made today will shape the extent to which the effects of climate change will be positive for migrants and their families. Inaction would mean missing a window of opportunity to reconfigure where, when, and how climate resilient investments are made in support of robust economies. This Policy Note \#5 is the fifth in a series of six notes drawn from the Groundswell reports. It provides an overview of results and their implications for East Asia and the Pacific, one of the six regions of focus. CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION: SETTING THE CONTEXT Climate change will intensify environmental degradation and natural hazards in many regions. Related impacts are already directly and indirectly shifting human mobility—both within countries and across borders—and will do so increasingly. Sometimes, ensuing migration can be an adaptation to climate change. At other times, climate change impacts increase the probability of migration under distress, creating growing challenges for human development. In some areas, the most vulnerable will be unable to move, “trapped” in at risk locations. Recent compounding shocks are also increasing the complexity and interconnectedness of underlying drivers of mobility. The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic crisis, and the effects of fragility and conflict, have compounded the shocks already faced by vulnerable people, reversing hard-won gainsin poverty reduction and shared prosperity, and adding to policy challenges. The objective of the Groundswell reports, and the modeling applied, is to provide policymakers with a way to better understand and plan for the likely movement of people within their countries—over time and across different geographies—due to slow-onset climate change impacts. These include impacts on water availability, crop productivity, and sea-level rise. The focus on “internal” climate migration is driven by the consensus that migration within countries, rather than cross-border migration, will be by far the larger phenomenon—yet both require concerted action. The reports model three internal c

FAQs

What is the main projection for internal climate migration by 2050?

Without concrete climate and development action, the report projects just over 216 million people could be forced to move within their own countries by 2050 due to slow-onset climate impacts.

How many internal climate migrants could East Asia and the Pacific see by 2050?

Across scenarios, the projected number could reach up to 48.4 million (2.5% of the region’s total population) in the high end of the pessimistic reference scenario.

What determines whether outcomes are worse or better for migrants?

The policy note emphasizes that future trajectories are not fixed, and that decisions today shape how climate-resilient investments are configured to support robust economies and dignified adaptation or migration.

Jul 19, 2026

Upload by Valentina