Global spatio-temporal evolution and health inequalities in high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and burden prediction to 2040

Sep 28, 2026

Global spatio-temporal trends and health inequalities are analyzed for high BMI-associated kidney cancer from 1990 to 2021, with burden forecasts extended to 2040. The study uses Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) data across 204 nations and territories, evaluating age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling quantify temporal changes. High BMI-linked deaths and DALYs rose substantially by 2021, with pronounced heterogeneity by gender, age, and SDI region, with different patterns after 2016. Policy-relevant strategies are proposed.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages17

Reading Time43 min

AccessFree to download

Background

Method

Results

Conclusion

Keywords

1 Introduction

Obesity and BMI as cancer risk factors

TYPE Original Research PUBLISHED 18 December 2025 DOI 10.3389/fonc.2025.1630856 OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY Sharon R. Pine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, United States REVIEWED BY Karem Salem, Fayoum University, Egypt Huanhua Wu, Shunde Hospital Afﬁliated to Jinan University, China *CORRESPONDENCE Haiyang Li [Uro_lihaiyang@126.com](Uro_lihaiyang@126.com) †These authors have contributed equally to this work and share ﬁrst authorship RECEIVED 19 May 2025 ACCEPTED 17 October 2025 PUBLISHED 18 December 2025 CITATION Lu Y, Zhang S, Ma J, Hu Y, Liu Y, Zhang K, Luo X, He X, Kong Y, Han X, Wang Y, Li S and Li H (2025) Global spatio-temporal evolution and health inequalities in high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and burden prediction to 2040 . Front. Oncol. 15:1630856 . doi: 10.3389/fonc.2025.1630856 COPYRIGHT © 2025 Lu, Zhang, Ma, Hu, Liu, Zhang, Luo, He, Kong, Han, Wang, Li and Li. This is an openaccess article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Global spatio-temporal evolution and health inequalities in high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden from 1990 to 2021 and burden prediction to 2040 Yawen Lu 1†, Siwei Zhang 2†, Jianfeng Ma 1†, Yang Hu 1, Yiming Liu 1, Kun Zhang 3, Xinyu Luo 4, Xiaojuan He 3, Yirong Kong 3, Xue Han 1, Yongfeng Wang 1, Sheng Li 1,5* and Haiyang Li 6* 1The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China, 2 Department of Digestive Disease, Weinan Central Hospital, Weinan, Shaanxi, China, 3School of Stomatology Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China, 4School of Pharmacy Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China, 5The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu, China, 6 Urology Department of Gansu Provincial People's Hospital, Lanzhou, Gansu, China Background: The primary cancer of the urinary system, kidney cancer is becoming more common worldwide and is linked to a high body mass index (BMI) . Although 20% of kidney cancer cases are caused by obesity, current research data on the global burden of the disease and its trends across population groups are scarce, especially as predicted by 2040 . Method: We examined age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs), and sociodemographic index (SDI) using Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) data from 204 nations and territories. joinpoint regression revealed changes in temporal trends and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling separated the effects of age, period, and cohort. Finally, we project the disease burden to 2040 . Result: From 1990 to 2021, high BMI-related kidney cancer deaths increased by 2. 67-fold, and DALYs rose by 66 . 1% . In 2021, the ASMR for high BMI-associated kidney cancer was 0.38 (95% per 10 0,000 UI: 0.12-0.52) and the ASDR was 8.99 per 100,000 (95% UI: 3 .68-14. 51) . Signiﬁcant heterogeneity was observed in gender and age, with a signiﬁcantly higher male burden concentrated in the 55– 79 year group. The main burden is concentrated in the high SDI region, including South Latin America, North America, Europe and North Asia. Over 30 years, the burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer gradually increased, especially in low SDI areas, while high SDI areas showed a decreasing trend after 2016 . The global disease burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden grew fastest between 2000 and 2010, began to decline in 2016, and will rebound in 2030 . Conclusion: The global burden of high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden has surged since 1990 . Although it showed a downward trend in 2016, it is expected Fro

FAQs

Which indicators were analyzed to measure the high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden?

The study analyzes age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the sociodemographic index (SDI).

How did high BMI-associated kidney cancer burden change from 1990 to 2021?

From 1990 to 2021, high BMI-related kidney cancer deaths increased by 2.67-fold, and DALYs rose by 66.1%.

What main differences were observed across populations and regions?

Significant heterogeneity was observed by gender and age, with higher male burden concentrated in ages 55–79, and the main burden concentrated in high SDI regions; low SDI areas increased over time while high SDI areas declined after 2016.

Sep 28, 2026

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