Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Q: What was the study’s main goal and data source?

The study evaluated the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Q: Which methods were used to analyze incidence and mortality trends?

Joinpoint regression assessed significant changes in incidence trends, and an age-period-cohort framework analyzed MSM mortality patterns.

Q: What did the study project for MSM incidence up to 2034?

Predictive analysis indicated a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), alongside a growing number of MSM cases.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Jiven

Background: This study evaluates the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease. Methods: Relationships between incidence and social-demographic index (SDI) and human development index (HDI) were assessed, while joinpoint regression identified significant changes in incidence trends. Mortality patterns were examined using an age-period-cohort framework, and future incidence through 2034 used the Nordpred method. Results: In 2019, the ASR incidence was 3.6 per 100,000 people and incidence increased in most countries; mortality declined globally with age-specific declines. Conclusion: Regional and country differences in ASR incidence persist; despite decreases, MSM remains a leading contributor to cancer mortality and morbidity globally.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages11

Reading Time28 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Background and Methods

Results and Conclusion

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034 Cancer Control Volume 31: 1–11 © The Author(s) 2024 Article reuse guidelines: [sagepub.com/journals-permissions](sagepub.com/journals-permissions) [DOI: 10.1177/10732748241227340](DOI: 10.1177/10732748241227340)[ ](DOI: 10.1177/10732748241227340)[journals.sagepub.com/home/ccx](journals.sagepub.com/home/ccx) Jin Yuan 1 􀀁, Xiaoyang Li1 􀀁, and Shengji Yu1 􀀁 Abstract Background: The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Methods: The incidences’ relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine signiﬁcant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the agestandardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used. Results: In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6–4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of 􀀁 .61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM. Conclusion: There are signiﬁcant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas. Keywords incidence trend, malignant skin melanoma, joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort framework, nordpred Received July 13, 2023. Received revised November 29, 2023. Accepted for publication December 15, 2023. Introduction Melanoma is a melanocyte-derived malignancy. Melanoma accounts for only 10% of all skin cancers yet accounts for 80% of skin cancer-related deaths.1 The majority of melanomas are malignant skin melanoma (MSM), with mucosal and uveal melanoma each accounting for 4% .2 Patients with melanoma gained better therapeutic outcomes with complicated reconstructive procedures and precision medication after decades of research.3,4 Despite the fact that the 5-year cancer-speciﬁc 1 Department of Orthopedics, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China Corresponding Author: Shengji Yu, Department of Orthopedics, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, No. 17 Nanli, Panjiayuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100021, China. Email: [zlyygk@163.com](zlyygk@163.com) Data Availability Statement included at the end of the article Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BY-NC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License ([https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as speciﬁed on the SAGE and Open Access pages ([https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage](https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage)). death rate for melanoma is already as low as 8.2%, another signiﬁcant issue is the growing disease burden.5 One-

FAQs

What was the study’s main goal and data source?

The study evaluated the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Which methods were used to analyze incidence and mortality trends?

Joinpoint regression assessed significant changes in incidence trends, and an age-period-cohort framework analyzed MSM mortality patterns.

What did the study project for MSM incidence up to 2034?

Predictive analysis indicated a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR), alongside a growing number of MSM cases.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Jiven