Global, regional, and National burden of hepatitis C from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2030

Sep 30, 2026

Burden related to hepatitis C (HCV) has imposed severe global health impacts, and WHO aims to eliminate HCV as a public health threat by 2030. Using Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 estimates, the study examines total HCV burden and key subcategories, including acute hepatitis C, chronic hepatitis C with cirrhosis, and HCV-related liver cancer. It quantifies age-standardized incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs, then evaluates trends and projects future burden with Joinpoint regression and Bayesian age cohort analysis.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages12

Reading Time30 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Introduction

Bai etal. BMC Infectious Diseases (2026) 26:25 BMC Infectious Diseases [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-12396-y](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-025-12396-y) RESEARCH Open Access Global, regional, and National burden of hepatitis C from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2030 Junzhu Bai 1,2†, Hengliang Lv 1,2†, Longhao Wang2,3, Shumeng You 1,2, Dan Liu4, Lilin Wang4, Yuanyong Xu 1,2*, Junfeng Lu4* and Wenyi Zhang 1,2,5* Abstract Background Burden related to hepatitis C (HCV) has imposed severely globally. The World Health Organization has proposed a resolution to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. By utilizing data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021, the study aims to explore the burden and prediction of diseases related to HCV globally. Methods The GBD 2021 was used to assess the burden related to HCV. We obtained the estimated dataset on total burden related to HCV and three subcategories including acute hepatitis C, chronic hepatitis C including cirrhosis, liver cancer due to HCV from GBD 2021. Age-standardized rate (ASR) and number of incidence, prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were employed to describe the total burden of HCV and classification. Joinpoint regression was used to analysis diseases trends and Bayesian age cohort analysis was used to predict future burden. Results The estimated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of total burden related to HCV decreased from 173.93 per 100,000 in 1990 to 153.82 per 100,000 in 2021, but the incidence shows a significant increase from 9.41 million in 1990 to 11.64 million in 2021 globally. In 2021, ASR of DALYs, mortality and prevalence were 177.24 per 100,000, 6.10 per 100,000 and 1313.83 per 100,000, respectively; all showed downward trends compared rate in 1990. From 1990 to 2021, three types of HCV-related diseases burden changed at different rates. There were significant differences in HCV burden between the genders, age groups and geographical distribution. The burden of HCV showed relatively higher in lower socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, with an ASIR of 237. 32/10,000 . Acute hepatitis C was more common in low SDI regions, while cirrhosis and liver cancer due to HCV were more common in high SDI regions. By 2030, †Junzhu Bai and Hengliang Lv contributed equally to this work. *Correspondence: Yuanyong Xu [xyy_827@sina.com](xyy_827@sina.com)[ ](xyy_827@sina.com)Junfeng Lu [junfengdoc@ccmu.edu.cn](junfengdoc@ccmu.edu.cn)[ ](junfengdoc@ccmu.edu.cn)Wenyi Zhang [zwy0419@126.com](zwy0419@126.com) Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s) 2025. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creati](http://creati)[vecommons.org/l](vecommons.org/l)icenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Bai et al. BMC Infectious Diseases (2026) 26:25 Page 2 of 12 global HCV-related liver diseases ASIR is projected to rise to 156.55 per 100,000, the burden related to HCV may still at relatively high level worldwide. Conclusions Our study highlighted the

FAQs

What data source is used to estimate the HCV burden?

The study uses the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021 estimated dataset for total HCV burden and related subcategories.

Which HCV-related outcomes are analyzed in the study?

The analysis covers acute hepatitis C, chronic hepatitis C including cirrhosis, and liver cancer due to HCV, using incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs.

How do projections to 2030 relate to the expected HCV burden?

By 2030, the global HCV-related liver diseases age-standardized incidence rate is projected to rise to 156.55 per 100,000, suggesting the burden may remain high worldwide.

Sep 30, 2026

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