Global, regional, and national burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019, and burden prediction to 2040 - Research Article

Q: What age range did the study use to define adolescents and young adults (AYA)?

The study focused on people aged 15–39.

Q: Which methods were used to analyze past burden and predict future burden?

It calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) using linear regression of the natural logarithm of rates, and applied a Bayesian age-period-cohort model for future predictions.

Q: How did GI cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) change over the past 30 years?

Overall mortality and DALY rates declined during the past 30 years among AYA.

Q: What did the predictions indicate for GI cancer new cases and deaths in 2040?

The study predicted 315,792 new GI cancer cases and 174,068 deaths among AYA in 2040.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Evangeline

Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers impose a substantial public health burden, yet evidence for adolescents and young adults (AYA, ages 15–39) remains limited. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data resources, the study estimated trends from 1990–2019 and projected future burden to 2040 with AAPC calculations and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results quantify new cases, deaths, prevalence, and DALYs, showing declining mortality and DALY, stable incidence, and rising prevalence, with geographic and cancer-type variation.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages17

Reading Time43 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Introduction

Global burden of GI cancers

Rationale for focusing on AYA

Evidence gaps in specialist diseases

Peng et al. BMC Public Health (2024) 24:3312 [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20777-2](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20777-2) BMC Public Health RESEARCH Open Access Global, regional, and national burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019, and burden prediction to 2040 Jieyu Peng1,2†, Shu Huang3,4†, Xiaohong Wang5†, Xiaomin Shi1,2, Huan Xu1,2, Ping Wang1,2, Qi Chen1,2, Wei Zhang1,2, Lei Shi1,2, Yan Peng1,2, Nanjun Wang6* and Xiaowei Tang1,2* Abstract Background Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers have heavily burdened public health. Few studies reported GI cancer burden among adolescents and young adults (AYA) . To address this gap, we explored the burden of GI cancer among people aged 15–39. Methods We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of rates was calculated by linear regression analysis of the natural logarithm. Bayesian ageperiod-cohort model was applied to predict the future burden. Results In 2019, there were 171,857 (95% uncertain interval [95% UI]: 157,092–187,974) new GI cancer cases with a rate of 5 . 79/100,000 (95% UI: 5 .29–6. 33) and 91,033 (95% UI: 83,156–99,399) deaths at a rate of 3. 07/100,000 (95% UI: 2 .80–3. 35) among AYA. The number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were 722,573 (95% UI: 660,806–789,476) and 5,151,294 (95% UI: 4,706,065–56,188,77), with rates of 24. 35/100,000 (95% UI: 22.27–26. 60) and 173. 57/100,000 (95% UI: 158.57–189. 32) respectively. The overall rates of mortality (AAPC = -1 . 281, p < 0. 001) and DALY (AAPC = -1 . 283, p < 0. 001) of GI cancers declined during the past 30 years, while the incidence rate (AAPC = -0 . 270, p = 0 . 074) remained stable and the prevalence rate (AAPC = 1 . 066, p < 0. 001) increased. The burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and pancreatic cancer increased, while those of stomach cancer (SC) and liver cancer (LC) declined. Among the 21 GBD regions, East Asia exhibited the highest burden, while within the five SDI regions, high-middle SDI locations showed the highest rates across all four indicators. CRC, SC, and LC emerged as the primary culprits, attaining a position within the top ten absolute DALYs for all AYA cancers. There were predicted to be 315,792 new cases and 174,068 deaths of GI cancers among AYA in 2040. †Jieyu Peng, Shu Huang, and Xiaohong Wang contributed equally to this study. *Correspondence: Nanjun Wang [woxinyongheng1210@126.com](woxinyongheng1210@126.com)[ ](woxinyongheng1210@126.com)Xiaowei Tang [solitude5834@hotmail.com](solitude5834@hotmail.com) Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.)[.](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.) Peng et al. BMC Public Health (2024) 24:3312 Page 2 of 17 Conclusions Despite the decrease in mortal

FAQs

What age range did the study use to define adolescents and young adults (AYA)?

The study focused on people aged 15–39.

Which methods were used to analyze past burden and predict future burden?

It calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) using linear regression of the natural logarithm of rates, and applied a Bayesian age-period-cohort model for future predictions.

How did GI cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) change over the past 30 years?

Overall mortality and DALY rates declined during the past 30 years among AYA.

What did the predictions indicate for GI cancer new cases and deaths in 2040?

The study predicted 315,792 new GI cancer cases and 174,068 deaths among AYA in 2040.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Evangeline