Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Aria

Objective: examine historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and project mortality by 2035. Methods: incidence data were retrieved from CI5 volumes I–XI; mortality data came from the latest WHO mortality database update. Join-point regression assessed historical trends, while NORDPREDin in R predicted death counts and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. Results highlight 2020 levels and differing AAPC patterns across countries, sexes, and ages. Conclusions: incidence and mortality overall declined, yet some countries show increasing trends, and absolute deaths may rise by 2035.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages13

Reading Time33 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Introduction

Lin etal. BMC Public Health (2024) 24:1763 [https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-19104-6](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-19104-6) BMC Public Health RESEARCH Open Access Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035 Ju‑Li Lin 1,2, Jian‑Xian Lin 1,2,3, Guang‑Tan Lin 1,2, Chang‑Ming Huang 1,2,3*, Chao‑Hui Zheng1,2, Jian‑Wei Xie 1,2, Jia‑bin Wang1,2,3, Jun Lu1,2, Qi‑Yue Chen 1,2 and Ping Li 1,2,3* Abstract Objective To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035. Methods Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I‑XI, and mortal‑ ity data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join‑point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPREDin R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. Results More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The aver‑ age annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P>0. 05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1. 2; (95%Cl, 0 . 5–2), P < 0. 05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P>0. 05) . AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3 .5 (95%cl, 1.6–5.4), P < 0. 05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P>0. 05); among the male population aged 20–44, Thailand [AAPC, 3 .4; (95%cl, 1.3–5.4), P < 0. 05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P>0. 05) . It is predicted that the mor‑ tality rate in Slovenia and France’s female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035. Conclusion In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; how‑ ever, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth. Keywords Stomach Neoplasms, Incidence, Mortality, Global trends, Predict mortality *Correspondence: Chang‑Ming Huang [hcmlr2002@163.com](hcmlr2002@163.com)[ ](hcmlr2002@163.com)Ping Li pingli81 [1002@163.com](1002@163.com) Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public

FAQs

What is the study objective regarding gastric cancer trends?

The study investigates historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicts mortality by 2035.

Which data sources are used to analyze incidence and mortality?

Incidence data come from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I–XI, while mortality data are obtained from the latest update of the WHO mortality database.

How are future mortality outcomes estimated for 2035?

The study uses join-point regression for historical trends and the NORDPREDin R package to predict death numbers and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Aria