Global burden and trends analysis of common cancers attributable to dietary risks from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050: a secondary analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021

Sep 23, 2026

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Dietary risk factors are central to cancer development, yet the global burden of diet-related neoplasms (DRNs) has not been fully mapped. This secondary analysis used age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, stratified by dietary risk, sex, age, and SDI. Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling projected DALY and mortality trends to 2050, while inequality was evaluated using the slope and concentration indices.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryHealthcare

FormatPDF

Pages13

Reading Time33 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Background and rationale

Methods

Data sources and stratification

Prediction model and projections

Inequality assessment

Results

2021 burden and major dietary risks

Trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050

High-burden groups and inequality findings

Conclusion

OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY Asma Saleem Qazi, National University of Medical Sciences (NUMS), Pakistan REVIEWED BY Abdul Momin Rizwan Ahmad, University of York, United Kingdom Umar Farooq, National University of Medical Sciences (NUMS), Pakistan *CORRESPONDENCE Fan Li [202899@hospital.cqmu.edu.cn](202899@hospital.cqmu.edu.cn) †These authors have contributed equally to this work RECEIVED 29 July 2025 REVISED 19 November 2025 ACCEPTED 25 November 2025 PUBLISHED 19 December 2025 CITATION Wei T, Li Y, Zhang Z, Xu Y, Huang H, Huang Y, Li J, Gong Z, Hu Z, Wang Y, Zhang A and Li F (2025) Global burden and trends analysis of common cancers attributable to dietary risks from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050: a secondary analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021. Front. Nutr. 12:1673422 . doi: 10.3389/fnut.2025.1673422 COPYRIGHT © 2025 Wei, Li, Zhang, Xu, Huang, Huang, Li, Gong, Hu, Wang, Zhang and Li. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. TYPE Original Research PUBLISHED 19 December 2025 DOI 10.3389/fnut.2025.1673422 Global burden and trends analysis of common cancers attributable to dietary risks from 1990 to 2021 and projection to 2050: a secondary analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021 Tingting Wei 1†, Yunhai Li 1†, Ze Zhang 1, Yijing Xu 1, Hongbo Huang 1, Ying Huang 1, Jiaying Li 1, Zheng Gong 1, Zhiqi Hu 1, Yichen Wang 1, Aijie Zhang 2 and Fan Li 1* 1Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China, 2Health Management Center of University Town Hospital Affiliated to Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China Background: Dietary risk factors play crucial roles in the carcinogenesis and progression of cancer. However, the global burden of diet-related neoplasms (DRNs) remains underexplored. Methods: Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates for DRNs were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. These were categorized by dietary risk, sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) level. Predictions of DALY and mortality trends from 2021 to 2050 were generated via the Bayesian age-period-cohort models. Crosscountry inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality and the concentration index. Results: In 2021, dietary risk contributed to 16.40 million DALYs and 0.67 million deaths from DRNs, including esophageal, stomach, colon and rectum, tracheal, bronchus, and lung, breast, and prostate cancers. Diets high in red meat and low in whole grains were primary dietary risks for DRNs. Globally, the agestandardized DALY and mortality rates related to DRNs have decreased over the past three decades and are projected to continue to decline until 2050. The DRNs burden is particularly heavy for colon and rectal cancer patients, patients in high and high-middle SDI regions, men, and those aged ≥70 years. Crosscountry inequalities reveal that the slope index of inequality rose for DRNs from 262.74 in 1990 to 296.14 in 2021. The concentration index was 0.27 in 1990 and 0.30 in 2021. Conclusion: This study revealed significant variations in the burden of DRNs across different age groups, sexes, regions, and countries, emphasizing the potential for tailored cancer screening strategies targeting populations with higher risks of DRNs. KEYWORDS neoplasms, global burden of disease study, dietary risk factors, sociodemographic index, health inequality Frontiers in Nutrition 01 [frontiersin.org](frontiersin.org) Introduction

FAQs

What data and outcomes were used to quantify the burden of diet-related neoplasms?

The study extracted age-standardized DALYs and mortality rates for DRNs from the GBD Study 2021, categorized by dietary risk, sex, age, and SDI level.

How were future trends in DALYs and mortality projected to 2050?

Projections from 2021 to 2050 were generated using Bayesian age-period-cohort models for DALY and mortality trends.

Which dietary factors were identified as primary risks for diet-related neoplasms?

Diets high in red meat and low in whole grains were identified as primary dietary risks for DRNs.

Sep 23, 2026

Uploaded by hdkawk