Get Rich or Die Tryin - Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rates, and Migration Decisions of Potential Work Migrants from Nepal - Migration, expectations, randomized field experiment findings

Jul 19, 2026

This article reports on a randomized field experiment with potential work migrants from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf. Participants receive information on destination wages and mortality incidences. The findings show that expectations about earnings and mortality risks abroad change the migration decisions, especially for those without prior foreign migration experience. Using exogenous variation in expectations, the elasticity of migration with respect to mortality-rate expectation is 0.8 and with respect to earnings expectation is 1.1.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages27

Reading Time1 h 8 min

Abstract

Introduction

Pub lic Disclosure Authorized Pub lic Disclosure Authorized The World Bank Economic Review, 34(1), 2020, 1–27 doi: 10.1093/wber/lhz023 Article Get Rich or Die Tryin’: Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rates, and Migration Decisions of Potential Work Migrants from Nepal Maheshwor Shrestha Abstract This article reports on a randomized field experiment in which potential work migrants from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries are provided with information on wages and mortality incidences at their intended destinations. It is found that, particularly for the group of potential migrants without prior foreign migration experience, the information changes their expectations of earnings and mortality risks abroad, which further changes their actual migration decisions. Using the exogenous variation in expectations, it is estimated that the elasticity of migration with respect to mortality rate expectation is 0.8, and the elasticity of migration with respect to earnings expectation is 1.1 . JEL classification: F22, J61, J17, D84, O12 Keywords: migration, expectations, Nepal 1. Introduction The number of people moving across international borders for work is increasing. By 2013, international migrants accounted for over 12 percent of the total population in the global north, over six times the share in 1990 (UNDESA 2015) . A 2011 Gallup poll estimated that more than one billion people wished to migrate abroad for temporary work (Esipova, Ray, and Publiese 2011) . Anecdotes and media reports abound on the risks that these migrants are undertaking in search of a better life for themselves or their families. For example, in 2018 alone, about 2,300 migrants died in the Mediterranean Sea on their way to Europe, and 442 died while trying to cross the border between Mexico and the United States (International Organization for Migration 2019) . A high death toll is not the plight only of those who try to migrate Maheshwor Shrestha is an Economist at the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice of the World Bank; his email ad[dress is mshrestha1@worldbank.org. The author is extremely grateful to Esther Duflo](dress is mshrestha1@worldbank.org. The author is extremely grateful to Esther Duflo), Abhijit Banerjee, and Benjamin Olken for their advice and guidance throughout the project. He also thanks David Autor, Jie Bai, Eric Edmonds, Ludovica Gazzè, Michael Greenstone, Seema Jayachandran, Frank Schilbach, and Tavneet Suri for helpful discussions and feedback. Special thanks are due to Swarnim Wagle, a member of the National Planning Commission of Nepal at the time of the study, for his advice and support during the project. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Department of Passport of Nepal were exceptionally supportive in permitting the study to be conducted on their premises, and the author is very grateful to them. All errors are the author’s own. The J-PAL Incubator Fund and the George and Obie Shultz Fund provided funding for this project. IRB approval for this study was obtained from the MIT Committee On the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects (COUHES) . This study is registered in the AEA RCT Registry, with the unique identifier AEARCTR-0003280 . A supplementary online appendix for this article can be found at The World Bank Economic Review website. © The Author(s) 2019 . Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [journals.permissions@oup.com](journals.permissions@oup.com) Downloaded from [https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/34/1/1/5588255 by International Monetary Fund user on 23 June 2021](https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/34/1/1/5588255 by International Monetary Fund user on 23 June 2021) 2 Shrestha illegally or who are forced to move. The Guardian reported that almost a thousand workers, all of whom were legal migrants from Nepal, India,

FAQs

What does the randomized field experiment test?

It tests whether providing potential work migrants from Nepal with information about destination wages and mortality incidences changes their expectations and subsequent migration decisions.

Which migrants are most affected by the information?

The results are especially strong for potential migrants without prior foreign migration experience.

What are the estimated elasticities of migration?

Migration is estimated to have an elasticity of 0.8 with respect to mortality-rate expectation and 1.1 with respect to earnings expectation.

Jul 19, 2026

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