Forecasting the impact of the mode of use of the UKCAT on medical school entrant demographics - Executive summary and full report

Sep 4, 2026

Forecasting the impact of the UKCAT usage style on medical school entrant demographics analyzes how admissions test handling can shape demographic characteristics of future medical entrants. It focuses on mainstream medical courses and excludes graduate entry and widening access schemes to reduce bias from missing socio-demographic data. The report compares borderline, factor, and threshold approaches, estimating how switching usage styles could change admissions proportions, and examines whether threshold levels influence outcomes under causal and no-additional-shock assumptions.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages14

Reading Time35 min

AccessFree to download

Executive Summary

Full report

Method and cohort consistency

Demographic differences linked to UKCAT usage style

Definitions: borderline, factor, threshold

Trends in consortium medical schools' usage style over time

Forecasting the impact of the mode of use of the UKCAT on medical school entrant demographics Paul Tiffin, Lisa Webster & John McLachlan October 2013 Executive Summary The results of previous analyses suggest that the manner in which the UKCAT is used in the admissions process may influence the demographic characteristics of entrants.1 Consequently we use these findings in order to develop forecasts of what may happen to the demographics of the medical workforce if medical schools were to change their usage style of the test. Our results suggest that if consortium medical schools currently using a ‘borderline’ or ‘factor’approach to the UKCAT scores switched to using the test results as a ‘threshold’ for interview or offer there would be modest increases (roughly 5-7%) in the proportion of males admitted to ‘standard entry’ medical courses. In addition, if medical schools currently using a ‘factor’approach to the UKCAT scores changed to a‘threshold’ approach there may be an appreciable increase in the proportion of ex-state school students admitted to ‘standard entry’ medical courses (roughly in the order of 10%) . There is some evidence to suggest that the level of the threshold selected will also play a role in dictating the impact of adopting this usage style. It should be noted that these forecasts assume that the link between the demographics and the style of UKCAT usage are largely causal. These forecast also assume that no other significant secular trends or ‘shocks’will intervene. Full report In order to estimate the potential impact on the demographics of UK medical graduates we first looked at where the mode of UK test usage is associated with a significant difference in the demographics of medical school entrants. In order for us to be reasonably confident that these differences are going to translate into long term trends they should be consistent across cohorts, especially over the most recent waves of intake. It is important to note that these findings reported only pertain to mainstream medical courses, not graduate entry or other‘widening access’ schemes. Such entrants were excluded in order to reduce the risk of bias (which would be compounded due to the relatively high rates of missing sociodemographic data in entrants to these courses) . When we look again at the findings from the 2009 cohort we see that there are two statistically significant differences, independently predicted by the use of the test at the institution in key demographics.1 These are male sex, and ‘below average advanced educational attainment’(equivalent to ABB or below at A Levels) . In addition there were three other sociodemographic variables that were independently predicted by test usage style, of borderline statistical significance (i.e. p value between .04 and .06) . These were socioeconomic status, school type attended and ‘English as a second language’ (EASL) . However, at this point we are more interested in the raw (unadjusted) differences in proportions of the entrants with different educational and sociodemographic variables. This is because the reason underlying the difference is not important at this point-only that there is consistent significant difference between those entrants to the three types of medical school, according to their usage style of the UKCAT test. Torecap these styles are categorised as: Borderline: UKCAT score used in borderline cases, as a tie-breaker, or (more rarely) as a “rescue” mechanism to offer interviews to candidates whose applications would otherwise rate poorly—that is, weak use of the test or few candidates affected Factor: UKCAT used as a factor in deciding to interview or offer, or both (moderate use of the test) . In practice this means around 4-33% of the decision to offer an interview or place was based on UKCAT scores. My previous report to the UKCAT Board highlighted that, as expected, a greater weighting factor makes acceptance generally more difficult but favours

FAQs

What is the report trying to forecast about UKCAT usage?

It forecasts how changes in the way medical schools use UKCAT in admissions could affect the demographics of medical school entrants and, by implication, the medical workforce.

Which UKCAT usage styles does the report compare?

It compares three styles: borderline, factor, and threshold, describing how each style is used to decide interview or offers and how strongly it weights UKCAT scores.

What demographic shifts are estimated under a switch to a threshold approach?

For consortium schools moving from borderline or factor approaches to threshold, the report estimates modest increases in the proportion of males admitted to standard entry courses and an appreciable rise in the proportion of ex-state school students, with the threshold level also influencing impact.

Sep 4, 2026

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