Extending Understanding of the Relationship Between School District COVID-19 Reopening Plan Signals and Enrollment Decline

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by acoobca

Before the 2020-21 school year, school districts engaged communities by sharing pandemic school reopening plans, detailing learning modalities and student support services. Prior studies link a district’s primary reopening method with enrollment changes, but evidence is limited on whether health and safety procedures, supports for vulnerable students, learning support services, and community engagement relate to enrollment change regardless of reopening method. Using differences-in-differences and triple-differences methods with granular Missouri plan data, results show distanced-instruction intent reduced enrollment by 3% and added 5% in middle schools without required masking.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages27

Reading Time1 h 8 min

AccessFree to download

Abstract

Methods

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| education policy analysis archives
A peer-reviewed, independent, open access, multilingual journal | | | --- | --- | | Arizona State University | | | Volume 31 Number 123 November 14 , 2023 ISSN 1068-2341 | | Extending Understanding of the Relationship Between School District COVID-19 Reopening Plan Signals and Enrollment Decline Andrew R. Diemer Amy J. Shelton Aaron Park Paula Langley & J. Cameron Anglum Saint Louis University United States Citation: Diemer, A. R., Shelton, A. J., Park, A., Langley, P., & Anglum, J. C. (2023). Extending understanding of the relationship between school district COVID-19 reopening plan signals and enrollment decline. Education Policy Analysis Archives, 31(123). [https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.31.8111](https://doi.org/10.14507/epaa.31.8111) [Abstract:](Abstract: Preceding the 2020-21 school year)[ Preceding the 2020-21 school year](Abstract: Preceding the 2020-21 school year), [school districts engaged their communities by](school districts engaged their communities by)[ ](school districts engaged their communities by)sharing pandemic school reopening plans, outlining the learning modalities and support services to be made accessible to students. Existing research has highlighted a connection between a district’s primary reopening method and changes in student enrollment—a crucial aspect for gauging responsiveness to different learning environments. Conversely, limited research has established the relationship between new health and safety procedures, provisions for vulnerable students, learning support services, or the level of community engagement undertaken by a district in creating reopening plans and student enrollment change, independent of the method of reopening (e.g., in-person or distanced) . We do so using two methodological approaches. First, we use differences-in-differences approaches to estimate the impact of reopening method on enrollment changes. Second, we leverage granular data of reopening plans for a representative sample of Missouri school districts in a triple-differences approach. We find that signaling the intent to begin the school year with distanced instruction generated a 3% decline in enrollment beyond pandemic-era declines, concentrated among the youngest students. Extending existing reopening findings, we also estimate that enrollment declined an additional 5% in middle schools where districts did not require masking. Keywords: PK-12 education; COVID-19 pandemic; reopening; enrollment; masking Ampliar la comprensión de la relación entre las señales del plan de reapertura COVID-19 de los distritos escolares y la disminución de las inscripciones Resumen: Antes del año escolar 2020-21, los distritos escolares involucraron a sus comunidades compartiendo planes de reapertura de escuelas pandémicas, describiendo las modalidades de aprendizaje y los servicios de apoyo que se pondrían a disposición de los estudiantes. Las investigaciones existentes han destacado una conexión entre el método de reapertura primaria de un distrito y los cambios en la inscripción de estudiantes—un aspecto crucial para medir la capacidad de respuesta a diferentes entornos de aprendizaje. Por el contrario, una investigación limitada ha establecido la relación entre los nuevos procedimientos de salud y seguridad, las disposiciones para estudiantes vulnerables, losservicios de apoyo al aprendizaje o el nivel de participación comunitaria emprendido porun distrito en la creación de planes de reapertura y el cambio en la inscripción de estudiantes, independientemente del método de reapertura (ej. , en persona o a distancia) . Lo hacemos utilizando dos enfoques metodológicos. Primero, utilizamos enfoques de diferencias en diferencias para estimar el impacto del método de reapertura en los cambios de inscripción. En segundo lugar, aprovechamos datos granulares de los planes de reapertura para una muestra representativa de distritos escolares de Missouri en un enfoque

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What are the key enrollment findings?

Signaling intent to begin with distanced instruction is associated with a 3% enrollment decline beyond pandemic-era declines, with additional decline in middle schools where masking was not required.

Oct 15, 2026

Uploaded by acoobca