Explore the Relationship between House Prices and Crime Rate in the UK Using Machine Learning Techniques - read online free

Aug 3, 2026

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The study investigates how crime rates relate to house prices in Bristol, UK, using a combined dataset covering January 2020 to April 2022. Crime data come from the UK Crime Stats website, while house price data are sourced from HM Land Registry Price Paid Data. The analysis uses 34,000 transaction records along with criminal statistics, applying tree-based machine learning and exploratory data analysis. Results indicate Random Forest achieves higher prediction accuracy than Decision Tree, with substantial correlation between crime levels and property values.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages18

Reading Time45 min

AccessFree to download

Introduction

Research background and motivation

Research questions

Research gaps and study approach

Explore the Relationship between House Prices and Crime Rate in the UK Using Machine Learning Techniques Soudabeh Motevali Department of Computer Science and Creative Technologies The University ofthe West of England, UK [motevali.soudabeh@gmail.com](motevali.soudabeh@gmail.com) HamzehAljawawdeh Department of Software Engineering Zarqa University, Jordan [hamzeh.aljawawdeh@zu.edu.jo](hamzeh.aljawawdeh@zu.edu.jo) Sami Abuezhayeh Department of Computer Science and Creative Technologies The University ofthe West of England, UK [sami.abuezhayeh@uwe.ac.uk](sami.abuezhayeh@uwe.ac.uk) Eman Qaddoumi Department of Computer Science and Creative Technologies The University ofthe West of England, UK [eman3.qaddoumi@uwe.ac.uk](eman3.qaddoumi@uwe.ac.uk) Abstract: In the UK, house price estimation is an important topic. It has been discussed in numerous academic research publications and official and business reports. A house’s price can change depending on size, age, and location. One of the main characteristics ofa property’s neighbourhood is the crime rate; it is crucial to consider how it may affect the home’s price. If crime rates rise, a neighbourhood may lose appeal to potential purchasers in favour of comparable-priced neighbourhoods. This study employs data from January 2020 to April 2022 to examine the relationship between crime rates and house prices in Bristol, UK. Crime datasets were taken from the UK Crime Stats website, while data on house prices was taken from the Price Paid Data of the HM Land Registry. 34,000 transaction records and criminal statistics are combined in the study to provide a comprehensive dataset for analysis. Two tree-based machine learning algorithms-Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF)-and Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) were used to model and evaluate the data. The results show that the Random Forest outperformed the Decision Tree regarding prediction accuracy. According to the results, there is a substantial correlation between crime rates and house prices. While vehicle crimes and bike theft had a positive correlation with property values, violent crimes had the opposite effect. These revelations highlight the intricate relationship between different kinds of crime and the characteristics of the housing market, with considerable consequences for investors, policymakers, and real estate developers. Keywords: Machine learning techniques, decision trees, random forest, house prices, crime rates, house price pre-diction. 1. Introduction The value of houses can vary depending on characteristics, including location, size, age, and various other elements, including economic considerations. Oneof the most crucial elements affecting a house price is its location, which includes accessibility to public amenities like parks, schools, the police, hospitals, etc. The degree of security in a place is one of these elements, and it is typically stated by calculating the local crime rate. There are numerous reasons why the relationship between property values and crime rates should be analysed. There are challenges associated with its estimation using data from the real world. Policymakers should consider the direction and strength of this relationship for at least two additional reasons. First, it may impact municipal budgeting choices for crime prevention because increased tax revenues from higher property values may partially offset the costs oflowering crime ina particular location. Second, a localized group of disadvantaged residents can have their conditions improved by a policymaker by increasing crime reduction efforts in their neighbourhood. This could result in asset appreciation and higher well-being for the group in question [21] . Based on these facts, this study will look at house price estimation and how the frequency of various sorts of crime affects the price of a house. The inspiration for this study originates from the need to address the gap in existing literature ab

FAQs

What data sources are used to study the link between crime and house prices?

Crime statistics are taken from the UK Crime Stats website, and house price information is obtained from the HM Land Registry Price Paid Data.

Which machine learning models are used in the study?

The study applies exploratory data analysis plus two tree-based algorithms: Decision Tree (DT) and Random Forest (RF).

How do different crime types relate to property values?

Vehicle crimes and bike theft show a positive correlation with property values, while violent crimes have the opposite effect.

Aug 3, 2026

Upload by Quinn