Estimating the Effects of Regulating University Face-to-Face Lectures on the Spread of COVID-19 - Evidence from Japan

Aug 26, 2026

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Universities shifted most teaching online during the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, yet the impact of non-face-to-face lecture formats on limiting the spread of the novel coronavirus has not been systematically quantified. This study estimates these effects using a multiple-event study negative binomial panel regression model. Results indicate that changing the online lecture ratio produces only slight changes in COVID-19 infections among university students, with limited reductions even when most lectures are held in-person. Overall, restricting face-to-face lectures appears insufficient for preventing spread.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages33

Reading Time1 h 23 min

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Abstract

Introduction

􀂦 University of Tokyo University of Tokyo COVID-19, University lecture style, Multiple event study, Negative binomial panel regression June 3rd, 2022 [https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1708601/v1](https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1708601/v1) 􀁱 􀅏 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License Estimating the E§ects of Regulating University Face-to-Face Lectures on the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Japan Michinao Okachi, Haewon Youn May 28, 2022 Abstract Universities are the only institutions that have conducted most lectures online during the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, but no researcher has analyzed the e§ects of nonface-to-face lectures on containing the spread of the novel coronavirus. This study is the Örst attempt to estimate these e§ects. Applying a multiple-event study negative binomial regression model, we Önd that changing the ratio of online lectures had only slight e§ects on the numbers of COVID-19 infections among university students. For example, if universities regulate almost all lectures in-person from lectures consisting of more than a half of in-person style, the number of student infections declined by 5.5 per 10,000 students between seven weeks prior and posterior to the change. Other lecture style changes show milder di§erences than this. Considering these results, minimizing or restricting face-to-face lectures does not appear to be particularly e§ective for preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Key words: COVID-19, University lecture style, Multiple event study, Negative binomial panel regression óóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóóó Michinao Okachi is an associate professor at Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, the University of Tokyo (E-mail: [michinao.okachi@waka.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp](michinao.okachi@waka.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp)), and a visiting associate professor at Research Center for Policy Design, Tohoku University. Haewon Youn is a Ph.D. student at Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, the University of Tokyo. (E-mail: [haewon0831@gmail.com](haewon0831@gmail.com)) 1 Introduction Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan China in 2019, people around the world have been a§ected by this serious crisis. Prior to the development of the vaccines, we had few measures to prevent the spread of this novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) . Individually, people wore masks and practiced physical distancing, and many governments declared states of emergency and regulated áows of people at a societal level. The Japanese government had been also announcing state-of-emergency and pre-emergency measures several times in epicenters such as Tokyo and Osaka by February 2022 .1 Figure 1 depicts the changes in the numbers of weekly infections in Japan within and outside of the declared states of emergency and pre-emergency measures in Tokyo. Under the new COVID conditions, schools from kindergartens to universities have also needed to take measures not to spread the coronavirus. For example, all public schools under the Örst state of emergency decided to delay the commencement of the new school term in April 2020 . After the end of this state of emergency, schools from kindergartens to high schools (i.e., Kñ12) started face-to-face lectures with adequate measures such as wearing masks and staggered attendance. Subsequently, the Japanese government did not request that public Kñ12 schools take strong measures such as closing schools or holding classes only online even during the second through the fourth states of emergency. However, almost all universities in Japan have been restricting face-to-face lectures to a certain degree since the outbreak of the pandemic in Japan.2 University students have shown frustration with not having had su¢cient conventional face-to-face lectures for about two years.3 We believe it will be beneÖcial to investigate whether testing studentsí patience with restrictive measures in fact helps contain the spr

FAQs

What does the study estimate about university lectures and COVID-19?

It estimates how regulating university lecture formats affects the spread of COVID-19 among university students.

How is the analysis conducted?

The study applies a multiple-event study negative binomial panel regression model to evaluate changes before and after shifts in lecture style.

What is the main finding regarding restricting face-to-face lectures?

Minimizing or restricting face-to-face lectures does not appear particularly effective for preventing COVID-19 spread.

Aug 26, 2026

Upload by Ophelia