Epidemiology and prognostic nomogram for invasive breast cancer aged 85 years and older in the USA

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Liam

Epidemiology and prognostic factors for female breast cancer patients aged 85 years and older in the USA remain limited, particularly regarding molecular-level heterogeneity. Using SEER surveillance data, the incidence rate and annual prevalence were quantified and incidence trends were assessed with annual percent change (APC). A visual nomogram predicted 3-year overall survival, evaluated by Kaplan–Meier and log-rank methods, with calibration and consistency reported. Overall, 18,137 patients were analyzed.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages10

Reading Time25 min

AccessFree to download

Methods

Study population

Receptor subtype categorization

Epidemiological results

Incidence and annual prevalence trends

Treatment patterns and survival modeling

Prognostic nomogram evaluation

[www. nature.com/scientificreports](www. nature.com/scientificreports) OPEN Epidemiology and prognostic nomogram for invasive breast cancer aged 85 years and older in the USA Xiu Yang1,8, Qian Wu2,8, Jie Jian3, Yanlin Qu4, Yating Qiang5, Xumei Li3* & Qingsong Peng6,7* The available data on epidemiology and prognostic factors of female patients with breast cancer aged 85 years and older in the USA are limited, especially regarding molecular-level heterogeneity. Relevant data were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end-result database. The incidence rate and the annual prevalence rate were determined. The annual percent change (APC) of incidence was measured to determine the gradual trends or changes in rates. A visual nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-year overall survival (OS). The Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were performed for survival analysis. In total, 18,137 female patients with invasive breast cancer aged 85 years and older were included. Among these patients, patients with HR+/HER2− accounted for 68.7%, followed by HR−/HER2− (9.3%), HR+/HER2+ (7.4%), and HR−/HER2+ (3.1%). The overall incidence rate among this population was 181.82 (95% CI 179.18–184.49) per 100,000 women. This decreased from 184.73 to 177.71 per 100,000 women from 2010 to 2019, with anAPC of − 1.0 (95% CI − 1.8 to − 0.1, P = 0.036) . The incidence rate varied across receptor subtypes and races and was higher in patients with HR+/ HER2− or the black population. The most common treatment regime was breast-conserving surgery. Approximately 29.2% of all patients were categorized as receiving no treatment. A nomogram for predicting 3-year overall survival was constructed, with a consistency index of 0.71. Furthermore, the calibration curves showed consistency. In this study, we have presented the epidemiological data of invasive breast cancer in females aged 85 years and older in the USA. The developed predictive nomogram can effectively identify patients with poor survival. Keywords Breast cancer, Epidemiology, Oldest-old population, Surveillance, epidemiology and end results, Nomogram With the decrease in all-cause mortality in populations aged 85 years or older, the oldest-old population has rapidly increased in the United States1. It is estimated that the total number of adults aged 85 years and above double in 2060 compared with that in 20162. As life expectancy has increased, cancer morbidity has become a major concern among this population. In the US, the proportion of the oldest-old population only accounted for approximately 2% of the population; however, the proportion increased to 8% among newly diagnosed cancer cases1. This disparity exhibited a high cancer burden among this population. It is estimated that in 2019, 140,690 new cancer cases were diagnosed in individuals aged 85 years and older, including 61,830 males and 78,860 females1. Additionally, the number of cancer survivors in the oldest-old population is estimated to increase by 4.7 million in 20403, which is twofold higher than that in 2019. The Global Cancer Statistics (2020) reported that breast cancer has become the most diagnosed cancer in females in most countries4. In the US, the incidence rate of breast cancer among females exhibited an increasing trend from the year 2010 to 2019, with an annual percent change (APC) of 0.5%5. Contrarily, another study 1Department of Oncology, Meitan County People’s Hospital, Zunyi 564100, China. 2Department of Dermatology, The People’s Hospital of Nanchuan, Chongqing 408499, China. 3Department of Pathology, Women and Children’s Hospital of Changshou District, Chongqing 401220, China. 4Department of Cardiology and Nephrology, The 941st Hospital of the PLA Joint Logistic Support Force, Xining 810007, China. 5Department of Hyperbaric Oxygen, The 941st Hospital of the PLA Joint Logistic Support Force, Xining 810007, China. 6Department of Oncology, Chongqing Hospital of Jiangsu Province Hospital, Chong

FAQs

What dataset was used to study invasive breast cancer in patients aged 85 years and older in the USA?

The study used data extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end-result (SEER) database, using SEER 17 registries (November 2021 submission, 2000–2019).

How did incidence trends change from 2010 to 2019?

The incidence rate decreased from 184.73 to 177.71 per 100,000 women between 2010 and 2019, with an APC of −1.0 (95% CI −1.8 to −0.1, P=0.036).

What model was built to predict outcomes, and what was its reported performance?

A visual nomogram was constructed to predict 3-year overall survival, with a consistency index of 0.71 and calibration curves showing consistency.

Sep 21, 2026

Uploaded by Liam