Effectiveness of Fertiliser Policy Reforms to Enhance Food Security in Kenya - A Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Jul 19, 2026

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Food security remains a central challenge across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Kenya facing substantial shares of the population below minimum dietary energy consumption. Kenya pursues a policy mix designed to strengthen agriculture’s contribution to food security. This paper assesses impacts of expanding fertiliser capacities, combined with additional policy changes focused on fertiliser use, on food security outcomes and household welfare.

LanguageEnglish

CategoryResearch & Report

FormatPDF

Pages29

Reading Time1 h 13 min

Introduction

Policy context and motivation

Modeling approach and scenarios

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Effectiveness of Fertiliser Policy Reforms to Enhance Food Security in Kenya: A Macro-Microsimulation Analysis Authors Pierre Boulanger-European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) pierre.boulanger@ec.europa.eu Hasan Dudu-The World Bank [hdudu@worldbank.org](hdudu@worldbank.org) Emanuele Ferrari-European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [emanuele.ferrari@ec.europa.eu](emanuele.ferrari@ec.europa.eu) [Alfredo J. Mainar](Alfredo J. Mainar-University of Seville)[-University of Seville](Alfredo J. Mainar-University of Seville) [amainar@us.es](amainar@us.es) Maria Priscila Ramos-University of Buenos Aires (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, IIEP-Baires, CONICETUBA) & Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII) [mpramos@economicas.uba.ar](mpramos@economicas.uba.ar) Corresponding author Pierre Boulanger European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Edificio Expo. c/ Inca Garcilaso, 3, 41092 Seville, Spain pierre. boulanger@ec.europa.eu / Tel.: +34 954 480 588 Disclaimer The views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission, the World Bank or any institution. Acknowledgement The contribution from Hasan Dudu and Alfredo Mainar-Causapé were made while being scientific officer atthe JRC, from Maria Priscila Ramos while being visiting researcher at the JRC. Effectiveness of Fertiliser Policy Reforms to Enhance Food Security in Kenya: A Macro-Microsimulation Analysis Abstract Food security represents a key challenge in most Sub-Saharan African countries and in Kenya in particular where still a relevant share of the population lives below a minimum dietary energy consumption. Kenya addresses this concern with a noteworthy policy mix, aiming at giving to the agricultural sector a leading task in improving food security. This paper evaluates the impacts on food security of expanding fertiliser capacities in Kenya, combined with a set of additional policy changes targeting fertiliser use. In a top-down analysis, a specific Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is linked with amicrosimulation approach. Scenarios present overall positive effects on key food security aggregates. The same is true for welfare. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of households across and within regions suggests that improving input productivity through better market access and services extension are critical to reduce possible discrepancies across farmers, households and regions. The paper concludes on the need of a sound policy mix since increasing fertiliser production alone is not enough to enhance food security evenly. Among accompanying measures, intensifying extension services is essential especially for smallholders in their acquisition of better knowledge on the use of agricultural inputs. Keywords: Agriculture; Fertiliser; Food security; Kenya; Top-down simulations JEL classification: C68, Q18, O13, R20 1. Introduction Food security, according to the most widely quoted definition, is achieved, "at the individual, household, national, regional and global levels when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (FAO, 1996: action 1) . This definition also recognises the high relevance for food security of sustainable agriculture, fisheries, forestry and rural development and the need to promote national and regional food security policies, to secure staple food supplies in developing countries. In Kenya, over two million people receive food aid annually although agriculture is the backbone of Kenya’s economy (USAID, 2020) . On average, over the period 2016-2018, the prevalence of undernourished in the total Kenya population is about 30% . The share of food insecure households are as high

FAQs

What does the paper analyze regarding Kenya’s food security?

It evaluates how expanding fertiliser capacities and complementary policy changes that target fertiliser use affect food security outcomes and welfare.

How are macro and micro effects studied in the paper?

A top-down analysis links a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a microsimulation approach to assess scenario impacts.

What conclusion does the paper draw about fertiliser production and supporting measures?

Increasing fertiliser production alone is insufficient for evenly improving food security; a sound policy mix is required, including intensified extension services, especially for smallholders.

Jul 19, 2026

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